The European Commission’s (EC’s) plan to wean the European Union (EU) from Russian natural gas would shut off all imports by 2027. But modelers at Princeton University and Binghamton University conclude in a new study that kicking Russian gas could occur as soon as Europe’s idled coal-powered generating capacity can be fired up. What’s more, the researchers say, despite using more of the dirtier fossil fuel, their plan would lower the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, Europe resolved to rapidly shed its imports of Russian gas, which made up 34% of total EU and UK energy consumption in 2019. As with the €210 billion REPowerEU plan unveiled by the EC in May, the researchers’ report, published in Joule last month, calls for greater imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from around the world, plus additional pipeline-delivered gas from non-Russian sources such as Norway, Algeria, Libya, and Azerbaijan. But unlike the EC plan, which envisions cutting Russian gas dependence by two-thirds within a year, the Princeton–Binghamton study says that all Russian gas could be eliminated right away, in part by reactivating coal power plants. Reducing by 75% the amount of gas now used for electricity generation, the researchers say, would leave more for space heating and industry.
Some reduction in overall gas consumption—roughly 6%—also would be necessary to kick Russian gas, says Neha Patankar, an engineer at Binghamton who coauthored the report. She notes that Germany, the largest consumer of gas in the EU, reduced the amount of gas used by industry and for space heating in March and April by 7% compared with the same period in 2021.
Although carbon dioxide emissions from coal are nearly twice those of natural gas per unit of energy produced, Patankar says the combination of reduced gas consumption and the avoidance of methane leakage from Russia’s leaky gas production and pipeline infrastructure would more than offset increased coal generation.
The new study follows one by researchers at Aarhus University in Denmark that focused on the impacts of a Russian gas embargo on the EU’s decarbonization goals. Their study, published in Joule in July, also finds that an increase in coal usage is necessary to compensate for the lost gas imports. Europe may be able to stay on track to meet its climate goals, the study says, as emissions from coal burning are offset by greater use of renewables and biomass and the widespread adoption of electric heat pumps.
Tim Pedersen, an author of the Aarhus study, says the modeling approach used by the Princeton–Binghamton group “is pretty solid. Of course, there are some assumptions that can always be questioned.” For one, Pedersen is doubtful that Europe can reduce its energy demand. And he questions whether the continent can rapidly adjust to the surge in imports of LNG and pipeline gas from non-Russian sources that is required in the Princeton–Binghamton forecast. “We are used to gas flowing from east to west. But if we are going to rely on more LNG imports, the flows are going to be going in the reverse direction,” he says, noting that it would be necessary to reconfigure pipeline hardware, such as check valves.
Still, Pedersen and his colleagues believe that Russian gas imports can be terminated by 2025, two years before the REPowerEU plan’s target. The EC plan may be too conservative in forecasting how soon new renewable energy sources can be brought online, Pedersen says, and it doesn’t include switching from gas to coal and oil.
In addition to increased imports of LNG and non-Russian natural gas, REPowerEU calls for more wind and solar energy generation; greater use of biomethane and renewable hydrogen; and better energy efficiency in buildings, industry, and power systems. The EC’s plan also includes electrification of industrial processes and widespread replacement of gas heating with heat pumps.
With the explosions last month that breached the Nord Stream 1 and 2 underwater pipelines, most Russian gas deliveries have been halted for now. But some gas still flows to the EU through Ukraine and Turkmenistan. European gas storage reservoirs are reportedly at 90% of capacity, and EU nations have agreed to cut their gas consumption by up to 15% this winter. Still, record-high electricity and gas prices are threatening to make home heating bills unaffordable for many residents.
The Princeton–Binghamton study acknowledges that obtaining regulatory approvals and reestablishing supply lines for the now-shuttered coal plants may slow a near-term shutoff of Russian gas. The plan also hinges on ideal cooperation among the EU member states. Although electricity transmission links among EU nations generally are adequate to accommodate changes to the continent’s electricity flows, Patankar says there are some bottlenecks, particularly between the UK and the European continent.
