The lifetimes of US nuclear weapons can be extended for decades "with no anticipated loss in confidence," simply by periodic inspection and replacement of components that wear out, according to an independent group of prominent scientists known as JASON.
The findings appear to support critics of the National Nuclear Security Administration's push to design and build replacement warheads. Instead, critics, joined now by JASON, argue that NNSA's warhead life extension programs (LEP) will ensure their continued reliability.
In an unclassified summary of the classified report, the advisers dismissed the major contention that NNSA and the nuclear weapons laboratories have made in arguing the need for a "reliable replacement warhead (RRW)"--that an accumulation of slight changes in replacement components for aging weapons over time could prevent them from working properly if they are ever needed. "JASON finds no evidence that accumulation of changes incurred from aging and LEPs have increased risk to certification of today's deployed nuclear warheads," the report stated.
But the panel warned that NNSA's science-based stockpile stewardship program, which it said was responsible for providing the current high level of confidence in the weapons' reliability, is threatened by declining budgets. NNSA's monitoring of the weapons arsenal to spot problems "is becoming inadequate," they cautioned, and a revised surveillance program is needed. "All options for extending the life of the nuclear weapons stockpile rely on the continuing maintenance and renewal of expertise and capabilities in science, technology, engineering, and production unique to the nuclear weapons program," it said. "The study team is concerned that this expertise is threatened by lack of program stability, perceived lack of mission importance, and degradation of the work environment."
In a statement, NNSA said it endorsed the recommendations and considers them "well-aligned with NNSA's long-term stockpile management strategy." But it added cryptically that "certain findings in the unclassified executive summary convey a different perspective on key findings when viewed without the context of the full classified report. The full report addresses them comprehensively and validates our basic scientific approach to warhead life extension programs, specifically our commitment to evaluating each weapon system on a case-by-case basis and applying the best technological approach from a spectrum of options."
JASON said that the addition of certain features that would increase warhead surety--another rationale NNSA has made for the RRW--might require a newly designed warhead in the case of missiles. All of the bombs that remain in the nuclear arsenal, however, could be retrofitted with the proposed new surety features.
"This new scientific report should be the final nail in the coffin for proposals to build new nuclear weapons," said Stephen Young, senior analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists. "The report finds that we can maintain our nuclear weapons indefinitely by simply continuing to do what we are already doing."
The review, which was completed in September but only released by NNSA last week, was requested by the House Armed Services Committee in February 2008.
David Kramer
