Obama administration officials have provided some of the details of how they will accomplish two energy goals President Obama proclaimed during his State of the Union speech: putting 1 million electric vehicles (EV) on the road by 2015 and bringing down the cost of solar power generation to equal that of conventionally produced electricity by 2020.
The solar initiative, dubbed SunShot, will require a 75% reduction in the cost of utility-scale solar generating stations, to $1 per watt, which would correspond to 6 cents per kilowatt hour, according to Energy Secretary Steven Chu. The initiative, he said,
will drive innovation in the ways that solar systems are designed, manufactured, and installed by focusing on four pillars: One, improving technologies for solar cells and arrays. Second, optimizing performance of the systems with power electronics. Third, increasing the efficiency of manufacturing processes. And finally, bringing down the cost to install, design and permit, and all other costs of solar energy systems.
Chu has acknowledged that meeting the goal Obama set for the number of EVs will be "ambitious." A report released by the Department of Energy (DOE) on 8 February lists a three-part scheme: Increased federal R&D spending on electric drive, batteries and energy storage; improved tax credits for consumers; and help for cities to install charging stations and other EV infrastructure.
From credit to rebate
In his upcoming budget request, Obama will ask Congress to increase R&D on EV technology by 30% and for the funding to set up a new energy innovation hub devoted to improving battery and other energy storage technologies. The DOE report says that manufacturers plan to produce more than enough EVs to attain the president's goal for 2015. To overcome the high cost of EVs, Obama proposes to transform the $7500 tax credit that EV buyers now get into a rebate that would be available at the time of sale. And the president also proposes a new grant program to assist as many as 30 cities with installation of EV infrastructure.
The DOE analysis uses manufacturers' publicly announced production plans and media reports in calculating that 1.2 million EVs will be built for the US market between now and 2015. That sum includes all-electric cars such as the Nissan Leaf and plug-in hybrid vehicles like the Chevrolet Volt shown here. Not counted are gasoline–electric hybrid vehicles such as the Toyota Prius.
The DOE report notes that $2 billion grants funded by in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funds will support 30 that fabricate batteries, motors, and other EV components. Another $2.4 billion in ARRA-financed loan guarantees will be used to build EV production plants in Delaware, Tennessee, and California.
The DOE report also says that further refinements of lithium-ion technology will drive down costs. Those refinements will enable manufacturers to scale back the oversized batteries they now install in EVs to ensure a 10-year lifetime. Already, General Motors has announced that the Volt will use 65% of battery capacity, compared with the 50% that had been previously planned. Next-generation lithium-ion technology will replace existing graphite cathodes with manganese-based and silicon-based nanostructured cathodes.
Pushing solar
Chu cited multiple reasons for the solar energy push, even as he acknowledged that legislation to cap or put a price on carbon emissions "is probably not in the cards" for the next two years. The president's solar generation target is an element of his longer-term energy goal for the nation to derive 80% of its electricity from "clean" energy sources by 2035.
Meeting that mark will be necessary to accomplish the 80% reduction in carbon emissions that climate scientists say will be needed from the US by midcentury if the worst consequences of global warming are to be averted. But restoring US competitiveness in the solar industry will have a substantial economic impact as well, putting US solar manufacturers in a commanding position for their products in a world market that is expected to explode in the years ahead.
"You don't have to believe [in climate change] or be 100% certain that it will happen to say that this is an economic opportunity that we cannot afford not to participate in," Chu told reporters during a tour of SunPower, a Silicon Valley company that manufactures the world's most efficient solar cells.
Richard Swanson, SunPower's founder and retired president, said DOE support was critical to the fledgling US industry's progress during the 1970s and 1980s, during which the cost of manufacturing solar panels was brought down 200-fold. Since then, however, progress has "sputtered," and the US has lost its lead to European and Asian manufacturers. Last year, he noted, more than half of the world's solar modules were built in China.
Chu said it is unlikely that crystalline or polycrystalline materials made with traditional techniques will produce the desired degree of cost reductions. He said that DOE is exploring methods for growing polycrystalline and single crystals that result in less waste. Thin-film materials such as cadmium telluride and copper indium gallium diselenide will also be pursued.
"We don't know which [thin-fim material] will win, but we do know that the efficiency has to go up," Chu said. A doubling of photovoltaic (PV) efficiencies will bring down all the other costs of a solar installation, he noted. Chu took the occasion to announce the award of $27 million in grants, of which $20 million will help five companies streamline manufacturing processes for PVs and other required components. The remaining amount will go to four companies to accelerate the development of promising new PV technologies.
The full details of Obama's energy initiatives will become available when the White House sends its budget request to Congress on 14 February.
David Kramer
