Nature:
Neville Nicholls from Monash University in Australia reminds
readers of
Nature that thirty-five years ago this week, atmospheric
scientist J. S. Sawyer published (
Nature
239, 23â26; 1972) a prediction that a 25%
increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide predicted to occur by
2000 corresponded to an increase of 0.6 °C in world
temperature. In fact global surface temperature rose about 0.5
°C between the early 1970s and 2000.As the prediction was
made during a period in which global temperatures had been
falling in the decades, "Sawyer's prediction of a reversal of
this trend, and of the correct magnitude of the warming, is
perhaps the most remarkable long-range forecast ever made,"
says
Nicholls.
