Science:
In a recent report, an eight-member panel convened by the
National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, which
advises the US Geological Survey (USGS), concluded that the New
Madrid fault system is at significant risk for severe
earthquakes. Quakes along the 150-mile-long fault can
potentially threaten the US states of Illinois, Indiana,
Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi. The
panel recommended that construction in those states should
continue to meet quake-resistant standards. But seismologists
debate the degree of risk. Recent GPS measurements of land
shifts show that very little crustal deformation has occurred
in the area. Seth Stein of Northwestern University believes
that the lack of crustal deformation indicates that stress in
the New Madrid fault has wound down and that consequently there
is little risk of earthquakes. The USGS advisory panel,
however, wasn't sanguine about taking that evidence as proof of
reduced risk to the area and will stick with its assessment, at
least until more data become available.
