Various:
The first attempt at shooting down a disabled spy satellite
will occur on Wednesday assuming bad weather does not delayed
plans to launch. The US Navy had been waiting for the space
shuttle
Atlantis to land before its first attempt. Ted Molczan,
an amateur satellite watcher says that the satellite
is
due to pass overhead at 10:30pm and
according
to space.com the Pentagon has warned aircraft to stay out
of the area for the next two days.The strike will cost
between
$40 and $60 million. The decaying orbital path of the
satellite suggests that debris from the satellite will burn up
on re-entry over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans or over the
sparsely populated Northern Canada provinces.
According to
calculations
by Geoffrey Forden from MIT and
colleagues
of Jeffrey Lewis, the interceptor will hit the satellite at
slightly less velocity than the Pentagon suggested, 9.4 km/s
instead of 9.83 km/s. If the missile misses, it will take
another 13 hours before another attempt can be taken. The
likehood that it will come down in a populated area and cause a
causality is calculated at 0.035%.More and more analysts are
becoming convinced that the shootdown is a statement about
missile defense rather than the risk of the satellite hitting a
populated area says Laura Grego, an astrophysicist with the
Union of Concerned Scientists Global Security Program. "If the
Pentagon demonstrates that its missile defense systems can
destroy satellites, it will be very difficult to convince other
countries that they shouldn't develop a similar
antiâsatellite capability," she adds.
Moreover, the strike will tell us little about the
effectiveness of the Navy system against an actual missile,
Grego says, as the satellite does not have decoys or other
countermeasures, and its trajectory and the time of the
engagement are known in advance, none of which would be
expected in a realâworld attack.
Related links
Experts
query Pentagon's explanation for shooting down spy
satellite
Geoffrey
Forden's analysis
USA
193 Risk Calculation
Attempt
to shoot down spy satellite to cost up to $60 million
ObSat.com
USA
193 plot through restricted zone
U.S.
Navy Might Shoot Down Spy Satellite Wednesday Night
Weather
may delay satellite shootdown
Satellite
Shot Offers Navy Key Space Defense Trial: How It Works
FEMA
instructions on what to do if you find debris
According to
calculations
by Geoffrey Forden from MIT and
colleagues
of Jeffrey Lewis, the interceptor will hit the satellite at
slightly less velocity than the Pentagon suggested, 9.4 km/s
instead of 9.83 km/s. If the missile misses, it will take
another 13 hours before another attempt can be taken. The
likehood that it will come down in a populated area and cause a
causality is calculated at 0.035%.More and more analysts are
becoming convinced that the shootdown is a statement about
missile defense rather than the risk of the satellite hitting a
populated area says Laura Grego, an astrophysicist with the
Union of Concerned Scientists Global Security Program. "If the
Pentagon demonstrates that its missile defense systems can
destroy satellites, it will be very difficult to convince other
countries that they shouldn't develop a similar
antiâsatellite capability," she adds.
Moreover, the strike will tell us little about the
effectiveness of the Navy system against an actual missile,
Grego says, as the satellite does not have decoys or other
countermeasures, and its trajectory and the time of the
engagement are known in advance, none of which would be
expected in a realâworld attack.
Related links
Experts
query Pentagon's explanation for shooting down spy
satellite
Geoffrey
Forden's analysis
USA
193 Risk Calculation
Attempt
to shoot down spy satellite to cost up to $60 million
ObSat.com
USA
193 plot through restricted zone
U.S.
Navy Might Shoot Down Spy Satellite Wednesday Night
Weather
may delay satellite shootdown
Satellite
Shot Offers Navy Key Space Defense Trial: How It Works
FEMA
instructions on what to do if you find debris
