The Issues and Events item “Electrification of cars and trucks likely won’t disrupt the grid” (Physics Today, April 2022, page 22) by David Kramer is timely and accurate as far as it goes. But by omitting mention of nonhighway transportation, and the rest of the economy for that matter, it unintentionally makes the growth in electricity usage on the path to decarbonization of our economy seem to be nearly business as usual. Several recent studies, however, show that a carbon-neutral US economy in 2050 will require around four times as much electricity as we use today.1–3
Synthesis of chemical fuel for aviation, military, and nonhighway vehicles will require more electricity than the electrification of highway vehicles discussed in Kramer’s story. The electrification of homes, businesses, and industry—including synthesis of hydrocarbon feedstocks—will require twice as much again. That prodigious increase in generation, transmission, and, hopefully, storage is most certainly different from what was needed to support the introduction of air conditioning.
The new electric grid will be much larger and will operate very differently from the old one. Power will be transmitted longer distances from regions where sunlight and wind are abundant. Roughly half that power will be for battery charging and a massive new electrochemical industry, both amenable to load management to match the remaining intermittence of renewable power supply. The tendency to treat decarbonization of economic sectors in isolation and thereby miss the big picture is in part a reflection of the incremental approach in our policy. To plan and finance the greatest industrial build-out since the railroad boom of the late 19th century, we must have a comprehensive policy that sets clear goals and brings long-term investor confidence. And we need it soon. We only have 30 years to complete the project!
