I read with great interest Steven Weinberg’s inspirational sermon “To the Postdocs,” which appeared in the March 2007 issue of Physics Today Physics Today 0031-9228 60 3 2007 58 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.2718758 (page 58 ). Weinberg is an honored Nobel Prize winner and a well-known elder statesman of physics. His main message was that each generation envies the previous one because, in hindsight, the actual physics problems to be solved by earlier generations seem less challenging than those of today. Weinberg provides badly needed perspective in correcting that view; he notes that the physics problems facing each generation are equally challenging and that the present postdoctoral cohort should therefore not envy Weinberg’s cohort.
But if Weinberg wants to help the younger generation, he is barking up the wrong tree. The most serious challenge facing today’s doctoral graduate is not the daunting nature of physics problems, all of which will eventually be solved. Rather, it is the poor prospects for advancement in the scientific world.
Today’s postdocs have every reason to be envious of Weinberg’s generation. That earlier crop were virtually guaranteed faculty positions, usually achieved tenure within five years after graduation, and suffered far less competition for research grants. All of that is indisputable.
Now let’s continue to be frank and admit that early advancement for Weinberg’s generation had little to do with the ability to solve physics problems; those new junior faculty members had simply studied the right subjects in the right places at the right time and were hired. The milieu of yesteryear contrasts starkly with today’s situation, with one notable exception: Early advancement still has little to do with intellect. Anecdotal reports, the only type available, suggest that those who advance the fastest today are those who studied the right field of physics in the right university under the right supervisor at the right time (or those who simply committed fraud to enhance publication). Consider, for example, the professorship prospects of a candidate who holds an in-demand doctorate in bioinformatics from a famous Ivy League school, compared with those of a candidate who holds one of many, many redundant doctorates in particle physics from a huge state university.
Although hard numbers are few, they imply an appalling situation. For example, the same issue of Physics Today ( Physics Today 0031-9228 60 3 2007 34 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.2718752 page 34 ) reports that fully two-thirds of recent physics doctoral graduates become postdocs. That is hardly the kind of news to trumpet to the heavens, as it undoubtedly reflects an inability to land faculty positions. Meanwhile, the surge of new PhDs continues unabated, and journals call for yet higher undergraduate enrollment.
All those factors are part of the perpetual illusion of personnel shortfalls that leads to what Donald Kennedy, former editor-in-chief of Science, and his coauthors called “supply without demand.” 1 Hence, ultimately, Weinberg’s well-phrased advice is irrelevant. Contrary to what he asserts, many in the current crop of postdocs are at the end of their research careers, not at the beginning. Of course, the world is always a hopeful place when viewed through rose-colored glasses.
