Walter Scheider and Alan Robock both write that they oppose nuclear power, largely because of safety and proliferation considerations. It would be wonderful if there were a vast, risk-free, universally agreed-on power source, but that is not the case. Yet the world needs energy. Consider the figure, compiled by mechanical engineer H. Douglas Lightfoot from information available from the US Energy Information Administration. It plots per capita energy consumption versus per capita gross domestic product. The correlation is nearly absolute; there are no points in the upper-left and lower-right corners.
Countries shown near the top of the chart have generally well-educated populations that live relatively comfortable, longer lives; people in the countries near the bottom have much less education, shorter life spans, and few comforts. Civilization can largely be defined in terms of per capita energy use. The goal of world development must be to improve the conditions of countries low on the list; this must happen if the 21st-century world is to find a measure of peace. Even if the United States were to cut its energy use in half and the rest of the world were brought up to that level, it would mean a tremendous increase in energy use.
Scheider and Robock reject nuclear power, but the alternatives are little better. Oil and natural gas will only provide energy for the planet for 20 or 30 years. Coal supplies are adequate for a long time, and China and India are rapidly developing that resource. However, coal is a heavy contributor to global warming. Wind and solar power depend on climate conditions and daylight. And biofuels require a great amount of acreage because of the extremely low efficiency of photosynthesis. By any reasonable measure, nuclear power must be an important part of the mix.
Even nuclear fuel is in very short supply—shorter than coal—for a once-through fuel cycle. Breeding nuclear fuel must play an important role in the mid to late 21st-century world. As a fusion scientist, I have advocated using fusion neutrons to breed nuclear fuel as well. 1 But if we find no new energy sources by midcentury, not only will we be unable to improve the lot of countries low on the chart, the countries now high up will begin to slide back down. Energy depletion, not nuclear power, is the real threat to civilization.
Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2003, Washington, DC (8 July 2005).
Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2003, Washington, DC (8 July 2005).
