Albert A. Bartlett claims that population growth is a major cause of societal problems. He goes on to state that physicists need to send the message to the public that solving the problems of carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption requires the stopping of population growth. However, he fails to report that the world population growth rate is already falling. According to the US Census Bureau, the rate of world population growth peaked in 1963–64 at 2.2%; it is now around 1.3%. Even the absolute annual increase in population is declining, having peaked in 1989–90 at 87.4 million. Currently, world population is increasing by about 74 million people annually; the growth rate is expected to continue falling for the foreseeable future.
The Census Bureau also reports that some projections show world population hitting a peak of less than 10 billion at some point in the next century. 1 Moreover, Bartlett’s figure of 1% growth for the US includes growth from immigration, which has no bearing on world population growth. When immigration is excluded, the US population growth rate is only about 0.54%, and it, too, is decreasing. 2 Although the consequences of “steady, exponential growth” are serious, that is not the type of growth displayed by the world population.
Population stabilization will not solve the problem of energy consumption, though. Bartlett reports that energy consumption will increase by 59% between 1999 and 2020; that percentage greatly exceeds the expected growth in population. As the developing world seeks economic growth, we can expect energy consumption to continue to increase at a huge rate.
Given the decreased population growth, it seems unlikely that we can solve the world’s energy problems by blaming them on population pressure. In fact, it appears that only the most draconian population control measures could possibly make the supplies of fossil fuels last longer. We are guaranteed to run out of fossil fuels because their supply is finite and more countries want increased access to them. If economic growth is to continue, we need to encourage conservation of energy resources, make our energy use more efficient, and look for replacements for depleted fossil fuels.
