As physicists confront the unknown, a crucial part of the job is choosing a set of assumptions that will guide their efforts in productive directions. The only certainty is that only a small fraction of the many conceivable outcomes of the inquiry process will remain viable as the field continues to progress—assuming it does indeed progress. Along the way, choices must be made: Which results should be taken as important hints to be used as the foundations of future work, and which results should be viewed with skepticism, needing further confirmation before being allowed to influence the field significantly? Those who wind up making good choices (either through wisdom or good luck) will eventually be recognized as pioneers.

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