Earthquake prediction entails the specification of the time, place and magnitude of an individual future event. All three of these parameters are poorly known and complicated functions of the relative motions of parts of the Earth's crust and mantle, the rate of strain accumulation in rocks and the strength of those rocks. Even if the processes by which the energy is accumulated and released were completely understood, the imprecise knowledge of the initial conditions, boundary conditions and relevant material properties would make the prediction of a particular seismic event very difficult.
REFERENCES
1.
2.
J. A.
Kelleher
, L.
Sykes
, J.
Oliver
, J. Geophys. Res.
78
, 2547
(1973
).3.
S. A.
Fedotov
, N. A.
Dolbilkina
, A. N.
Morozov
, V. I.
Myachkin
, V. B.
Preobrazhensky
, G. A.
Sobolev
, Tectonophysics
9
, 249
(1970
);4.
5.
6.
T.
Rikitake
, “International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior
,” in Comptes Rend.
18
, 142
(1973
).7.
Yu. V.
Riznichenko
, A. I.
Zakharova
, Izv. Akad. Nauk SSSR
3
, 178
(English Edition) (1971
).8.
9.
H. F. Reid. “The Mechanics of the Earthquake; The California Earthquake of April 18, 1906,” Report of the State Investigation Commission, Vol. 2, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, D.C. (1910).
10.
11.
12.
K.
Kasahara
, A.
Okada
, M.
Shibano
, V.
Sasaki
, S.
Matsumoto
, Bull. Earthquake Res. Inst. Tokyo Univ.
45
, 225
(1967
).13.
J. C.
Savage
, W. H.
Prescott
, W. T.
Kinoshita
, Proceedings of the Conference on Tectonic Problems of the San Andreas Fault System, Stanford University Publications in the Geological Sciences
13
, 44
(1973
).14.
15.
16.
S.
Suyehiro
, T.
Asada
, M.
Ohtake
, Papers in Meteorology and Geophysics
15
, 71
(1964
);17.
M.
Wyss
, W. H. K.
Lee
, Proceedings of the Conference on Tectonic Problems of the San Andreas Fault System, Stanford University Publications in the Geological Sciences
13
, 24
(1973
).18.
S.
Matsushima
, Bull. Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University
32
(1960
);19.
Y. P.
Aggarwal
, L. R.
Sykes
, J.
Armbruster
, M. L.
Sbar
, Nature
241
, 101
(1973
);C. Kisslinger, E. R. Engdahl. Tectonophysics (to be published, 1974).
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
W. F.
Brace
, B. W.
Paulding
Jr, C. H.
Scholz
, J. Geophys. Res.
71
, 3939
(1966
).25.
26.
27.
C. H.
Scholz
, L. R.
Sykes
, Y. P.
Aggarwal
, Science
181
, 803
(1973
).28.
J. H.
Healy
, W. W.
Rubey
, D. T.
Griggs
, C. B.
Raleigh
, Science
161
, 1301
(1968
).
This content is only available via PDF.
© 1974 American Institute of Physics.
1974
American Institute of Physics
You do not currently have access to this content.