We present a computer model for predicting the median dose (ED50) that produces an ophthamoscopically detectable lesion in the retina. It consists of an optical model (beam propagation through the eye), a reflectance model (absorption distribution within the retinal tissues), a thermal model (solving the heat equation) and a damage model (based on the Arrhenius equation). The model was validated with 253 experimental ED50s that cover the entire thermal regime in both macular and paramacular regions encompassing wavelengths between 413 nm and 1338 nm, pulse durations between 100 μs and 3000 s and retinal spot sizes ranging from minimum to 2 mm. These ED50s are matched with a mean ratio of 0.93 and a standard deviation of 31 %. The largest ratio between model prediction and experimental data was 1.7. The applicability for using the model results for risk analysis for human exposure is discussed.
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