Infrasound analysis of the 2018-Dec-18 49 kiloton Bering Sea bolide: Misassociations and celerity-range models

Automatic detections at the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO) are often misassociated. This occasionally leads to single events being split into multiple events. Infrasound signals generated from a large bolide over the Bering Sea on 2018-Dec-18 were recorded on more than 15 of the CTBTO International Monitoring System (IMS) stations. The bolide was also reported by the Center for Near Earth Object Studies (http://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs) with a calculated total impact energy value of 49 kt. Signals from this bolide were automatically detected and associated at the IDC, into two different events, with the origin time differing by approximately 7.5 minutes and location by ∼125 km. To investigate why detections from this bolide event were misassociated in the automatic bulletins, we analyze infrasound observations from the IMS infrasound arrays and compare our arrival time observations to the automatic detections from the IDC. We use the Bayesian Infrasonic Source Localisation method, to investigate how location estimates improve with different celerity-range models. Through comparison with the associations based on IDC detections, we improve our understanding of the causes of misassociations and identify potential improvements to future event association algorithms.