SAFESIMM (Statistical Algorithms For Estimating the Sonar Influence on Marine Megafauna) is a simulation-based framework for calculating the probable numbers of animals affected by underwater sounds; such as active sonar, which has been implicated in marine mammal fatalities. SAFESIMM is the culmination of a large, multi-year collaborative project between BAE Systems and the University of St Andrews. The resulting software tool uses the latest research on the effects of sound on marine mammals together with data on the distribution, abundance and hearing characteristics of these species. The end result is a simulation-based statistical model that quantifies the probability of physical effects and behavioural responses, along with the expected numbers of occurrences and associated uncertainty in the predictions. The parameters used in each simulation are easily altered, allowing rapid comparison of alternative scenarios. This paper describes: 1. The problem in general terms; 2. The logical high-level solution; 3. The principal questions that must be addressed, 4. The solutions to these based on current knowledge; 5. The framework (SAFESIMM) that combines these.

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