The impacts of characteristic weather events and seasonal patterns on infrasound propagation in the Arctic region are simulated numerically. The methodology utilizes wide-angle parabolic equation methods for a windy atmosphere with inputs provided by radiosonde observations and a high-resolution reanalysis of Arctic weather. The calculations involve horizontal distances up to 200 km for which interactions with the troposphere and lower stratosphere dominate. Among the events examined are two sudden stratospheric warmings, which are found to weaken upward refraction by temperature gradients while creating strongly asymmetric refraction from disturbances to the circumpolar winds. Also examined are polar low events, which are found to enhance negative temperature gradients in the troposphere and thus lead to strong upward refraction. Smaller-scale and topographically driven phenomena, such as low-level jets, katabatic winds, and surface-based temperature inversions, are found to create frequent surface-based ducting out to 100 km. The simulations suggest that horizontal variations in the atmospheric profiles, in response to changing topography and surface property transitions, such as ice boundaries, play an important role in the propagation.
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