Short-term wind speed prediction plays a vital role in wind power generation, which has a significant impact on dispatching and operation decisions. However, the hourly wind speed time series exhibits the feature of high intermittency and high fluctuation, limiting the forecasting performance and timeliness. Therefore, the novel intelligent hybrid prediction approach was developed based on variational mode decomposition (VMD), fuzzy entropy test (FE), and Elman neural network. In the proposed approach, the chaos degree of wind speed time series was deceased by VMD to create a great environment for the following prediction work. Considering the timeliness, the reconstruction based on FE was designed, which reduced the number of times to run forecasting model. The proposed approach is applied to the five cases collected from two different wind farms. The obtained results indicated that the proposed approach owned the optimal performance and its average prediction accuracy was improved by 56.40% compared with that of other comparative models. Meanwhile, the timeliness of the proposed approach was doubled after the reconstruction based on FE. Hence, the proposed approach can meet the requirements of wind farm to obtain the accurate prediction of hourly wind speed timely.
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June 2025
Research Article|
May 08 2025
A novel hybrid approach for hourly wind speed forecasting based on variational mode decomposition, data feature reconstruction, and machine learning
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Shunyu Zhao
;
Shunyu Zhao
(Methodology, Writing – original draft)
1
Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watershed, School of Ecology, Environment, and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology
, Guangzhou 510006, People's Republic of China
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Yelin Wang
;
Yelin Wang
(Software)
1
Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watershed, School of Ecology, Environment, and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology
, Guangzhou 510006, People's Republic of China
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Jianwei Deng;
Jianwei Deng
(Validation)
2
Faculty of Management and Economics, Kunming University of Science and Technology
, Kunming, Yunnan 650093, People's Republic of China
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Zhi Chen
;
Zhi Chen
(Writing – review & editing)
3
College of Materials and Chemistry, China Jiliang University
, Hangzhou 310018, China
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Ping Yang;
Ping Yang
(Validation)
2
Faculty of Management and Economics, Kunming University of Science and Technology
, Kunming, Yunnan 650093, People's Republic of China
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Youjie Li
Youjie Li
a)
(Writing – review & editing)
2
Faculty of Management and Economics, Kunming University of Science and Technology
, Kunming, Yunnan 650093, People's Republic of China
a)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: [email protected]
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Shunyu Zhao
1
Yelin Wang
1
Jianwei Deng
2
Zhi Chen
3
Ping Yang
2
Youjie Li
2,a)
1
Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watershed, School of Ecology, Environment, and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology
, Guangzhou 510006, People's Republic of China
2
Faculty of Management and Economics, Kunming University of Science and Technology
, Kunming, Yunnan 650093, People's Republic of China
3
College of Materials and Chemistry, China Jiliang University
, Hangzhou 310018, China
a)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: [email protected]
J. Renewable Sustainable Energy 17, 033301 (2025)
Article history
Received:
October 30 2024
Accepted:
April 25 2025
Citation
Shunyu Zhao, Yelin Wang, Jianwei Deng, Zhi Chen, Ping Yang, Youjie Li; A novel hybrid approach for hourly wind speed forecasting based on variational mode decomposition, data feature reconstruction, and machine learning. J. Renewable Sustainable Energy 1 June 2025; 17 (3): 033301. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0246082
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