Green hydrogen produced from renewable sources such as wind and photovoltaic (PV) power is expected to be pivotal in China's carbon neutrality target by 2060. This study assessed the potential production, levelized costs of hydrogen (LCOH), and the cost structure in diverse mainland Chinese provinces from 2020 to 2060. It considered various combinations of electrolysis technologies, specifically alkaline electrolysis (AE) and proton exchange membrane (PEM), in conjunction with green electricity sources. The analysis considers the technological learning effects of wind power, PV power, AE, and PEM. This study's primary conclusions and policy recommendations are as follows: (1) PV power would be the predominant energy for green hydrogen production in nearly all of mainland China, providing a potential 2.25–28 642.19 kt/yr hydrogen production in different provinces. (2) AE exhibits cost (with LCOH around 3.18–8.74 USD/kg) competitiveness than PEM (with LCOH around 3.33–10.24 USD/kg) for hydrogen production. Thus, policymakers are advised to focus on the PV power combined with the AE pathway for large-scale hydrogen production. PEM is suggested to be mainly used in cases with high power fluctuations and end devices. (3) The provinces (especially Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Gansu Province) in the Northwest of China show the greatest potential (about 74.35%) and have the lowest LCOH (with around 3.18–4.78 USD/kg). However, these provinces are quite distant from existing energy demand hubs. Thus, decision-makers are advised to focus on developing long-distance transmission/transportation infrastructure for either green electricity or green hydrogen.
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