This study proposes a modified gaps filling method, expanding the column mean imputation method and evaluated using randomly generated missing values comprising 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20% of the original data on power output. The XGBoost algorithm was implemented as a forecasting model using the original and processed datasets and two sources of solar radiation data, namely, Shortwave Radiation (SWR) from Advanced Himawari Imager 8 (AHI-8) and Surface Solar Radiation Downward (SSRD) from ERA5 global reanalysis data. The accuracy of the two sets of forecasted power output was evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Results show that by applying the proposed gap filling method and using SWR in forecasting solar photovoltaic (PV) output, the improvement in the RMSE and MAE values range from 12.52% to 24.30% and from 21.10% to 31.31%, respectively. Meanwhile, using SSRD, the improvement in the RMSE values range from 14.01% to 28.54% and MAE values from 22.39% to 35.53%. To further evaluate the accuracy of the proposed gap-filling method, the proposed method could be validated using different datasets and other forecasting methods. Future studies could also consider applying the said method to datasets with data gaps higher than 20%.
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July 2023
Research Article|
August 24 2023
A novel data gaps filling method for solar PV output forecasting
Ian B. Benitez
;
Ian B. Benitez
a)
(Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Methodology, Resources, Software, Writing – original draft)
1
National Engineering Center, University of the Philippines, Diliman
Quezon City, Philippines
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Jessa A. Ibañez
;
Jessa A. Ibañez
b)
(Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Methodology, Visualization, Writing – original draft)
1
National Engineering Center, University of the Philippines, Diliman
Quezon City, Philippines
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Cenon D. Lumabad, III
;
Cenon D. Lumabad, III
c)
(Data curation, Software)
1
National Engineering Center, University of the Philippines, Diliman
Quezon City, Philippines
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Jayson M. Cañete
;
Jayson M. Cañete
d)
(Data curation, Resources, Software)
1
National Engineering Center, University of the Philippines, Diliman
Quezon City, Philippines
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Francisco N. De los Reyes
;
Francisco N. De los Reyes
e)
(Validation, Writing – review & editing)
2
School of Statistics, University of the Philippines, Diliman
, Quezon City, Philippines
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Jeark A. Principe
Jeark A. Principe
f)
(Funding acquisition, Validation, Writing – review & editing)
3
Department of Geodetic Engineering, University of the Philippines, Diliman
, Quezon City, Philippines
f)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: japrincipe@up.edu.ph
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f)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: japrincipe@up.edu.ph
a)
Electronic mail: ibbenitez@up.edu.ph
b)
Electronic mail: jaibanez@up.edu.ph
c)
Electronic mail: cenonlumabadiii@gmail.com
d)
Electronic mail: jmcanete@up.edu.ph
e)
Electronic mail: fndelosreyes@up.edu.ph
J. Renewable Sustainable Energy 15, 046102 (2023)
Article history
Received:
May 09 2023
Accepted:
August 06 2023
Citation
Ian B. Benitez, Jessa A. Ibañez, Cenon D. Lumabad, Jayson M. Cañete, Francisco N. De los Reyes, Jeark A. Principe; A novel data gaps filling method for solar PV output forecasting. J. Renewable Sustainable Energy 1 July 2023; 15 (4): 046102. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0157570
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