China's photovoltaic poverty alleviation power stations (PPAPS) properly combine poverty alleviation and renewable power generation while also meeting rural energy demands. The fundamental problem is how to optimize the benefits of PPAPS during its limited lifetime. Using the post-operation of photovoltaic poverty alleviation power plants as a starting point, this paper proposes a model combining real option theory and cooperative game to determine the ideal contract period of service committed by the government to the operation and maintenance (O&M) company, thus providing a reference for both parties. The model's validity and applicability are verified by incorporating a PPAPS from Henan Province in China as an example; ultimately, the factors influencing the O&M contract period are ranked using the Sobol global sensitivity analysis. The results show that when the solar industry's environment is positive, the government is more inclined to sign long-term contracts with O&M companies. In contrast, the more the government invests in the facilities, the more likely both parties will sign short-term contracts. Furthermore, the O&M company's capital investment in the power station has a direct impact on the contract period. Finally, corresponding policy recommendations are proposed for future O&M contracts.

1.
Akinyele
,
D.
,
Babatunde
,
O.
,
Monyei
,
C.
,
Olatomiwa
,
L.
,
Okediji
,
A.
,
Ighravwe
,
D.
,
Abiodun
,
O.
,
Onasanya
,
M.
, and
Temikotan
,
K.
, “
Possibility of solar thermal power generation technologies in Nigeria: Challenges and policy directions
,”
Renewable Energy Focus
29
,
24
41
(
2019
).
2.
Bao
,
H.
,
Peng
,
Y.
,
Ablanedo-Rosas
,
J. H.
, and
Gao
,
H.
, “
An alternative incomplete information bargaining model for identifying the reasonable concession period of a BOT project
,”
Int. J. Proj. Manage.
33
(
5
),
1151
1159
(
2015
).
3.
Beránek
,
V.
,
Olšan
,
T.
,
Libra
,
M.
,
Poulek
,
V.
,
Sedláček
,
J.
,
Dang
,
M.-Q.
, and
Tyukhov
,
I. I.
, “
New monitoring system for photovoltaic power plants' management
,”
Energies
11
(
10
),
2495
(
2018
).
4.
Bizzarri
,
F.
,
Bongiorno
,
M.
,
Brambilla
,
A.
,
Gruosso
,
G.
, and
Gajani
,
G. S.
, “
Model of photovoltaic power plants for performance analysis and production forecast
,”
IEEE Trans. Sustainable Energy
4
(
2
),
278
285
(
2013
).
5.
Chandel
,
M.
,
Agrawal
,
G. D.
,
Mathur
,
S.
, and
Mathur
,
A.
, “
Techno-economic analysis of solar photovoltaic power plant for garment zone of Jaipur city
,”
Case Stud. Therm. Eng.
2
,
1
7
(
2014
).
6.
Christopher Frey
,
H.
and
Patil
,
S. R.
, “
Identification and review of sensitivity analysis methods
,”
Risk Anal.
22
(
3
),
553
578
(
2002
).
7.
De La Parra
,
I.
,
Muñoz
,
M.
,
Lorenzo
,
E.
,
García
,
M.
,
Marcos
,
J.
, and
Martínez-Moreno
,
F.
, “
PV performance modelling: A review in the light of quality assurance for large PV plants
,”
Renewable Sustainable Energy Rev.
78
,
780
797
(
2017
).
8.
Deng
,
Q.
,
Zhang
,
L.
,
Cui
,
Q.
, and
Jiang
,
X.
, “
A simulation-based decision model for designing contract period in building energy performance contracting
,”
Build. Environ.
71
,
71
80
(
2014
).
9.
Dixit
,
R. K.
and
Pindyck
,
R. S.
, Investment Under Uncertainty (
Princeton University Press
,
2012
).
10.
Fernandes
,
C. A. F.
,
Torres
,
J. P. N.
,
Morgado
,
M.
, and
Morgado
,
J. A. P.
, “
Aging of solar PV plants and mitigation of their consequences
,” in
IEEE International Power Electronics and Motion Control Conference (PEMC)
(Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers,
2016
), pp.
1240
1247
.
11.
Finon
,
D.
, “
Investment risk allocation in decentralised electricity markets. The need of long-term contracts and vertical integration
,”
OPEC Energy Rev.
32
(
2
),
150
183
(
2008
).
12.
Geall
,
S.
,
Shen
,
W.
, and
Gongbuzeren
, “
Solar energy for poverty alleviation in China: State ambitions, bureaucratic interests, and local realities
,”
Energy Res. Social Sci.
41
,
238
248
(
2018
).
13.
Hadi
,
A. H.
and
Erzaij
,
K. R.
, “
Determination a reasonable concession period for (PPP) projects
,”
Civil Eng. J.
5
(
6
),
1235
1248
(
2019
).
14.
Han
,
M.
,
Xiong
,
J.
,
Wang
,
S.
, and
Yang
,
Y.
, “
Chinese photovoltaic poverty alleviation: Geographic distribution, economic benefits and emission mitigation
,”
Energy Policy
144
,
111685
(
2020
).
15.
Hanaoka
,
S.
and
Palapus
,
H. P.
, “
Reasonable concession period for build-operate-transfer road projects in the Philippines
,”
Int. J. Proj. Manage.
30
(
8
),
938
949
(
2012
).
16.
Haque
,
M. A.
,
Topal
,
E.
, and
Lilford
,
E.
, “
A numerical study for a mining project using real options valuation under commodity price uncertainty
,”
Resour. Policy
39
,
115
123
(
2014
).
17.
Huang
,
C.
,
Hou
,
H.
,
Hu
,
E.
,
Liang
,
M.
, and
Yang
,
Y.
, “
Impact of power station capacities and sizes of solar field on the performance of solar aided power generation
,”
Energy
139
,
667
679
(
2017
).
18.
Huchzermeier
,
A.
and
Loch
,
C. H.
, “
Project management under risk: Using the real options approach to evaluate flexibility in R…D
,”
Manage. Sci.
47
(
1
),
85
101
(
2001
).
19.
Jiang
,
Y.
,
Wang
,
Q.
, and
Cui
,
X.
, “
Infrastructure PPP Project Governance: contractual governance, relationship governance and the formal institutional environment
,”
Public Adm. Rev.
14
(
5
),
41
60
(
2021
).
20.
Jin
,
H. Y.
,
Liu
,
S. J.
,
Sun
,
J. D.
, and
Liu
,
C. L.
, “
Determining concession periods and minimum revenue guarantees in public-private-partnership agreements
,”
Eur. J. Oper. Res.
291
(
2
),
512
524
(
2021
).
21.
Jin
,
K.
,
Yang
,
J.
,
Zhao
,
B.
,
Sun
,
P.
,
Hu
,
S.
,
An
,
J.
, and
Han
,
J.
, “
Research on impacts of photovoltaic connected to rural grid considering time-varying characteristic
,” in
2nd IEEE Conference on Energy Internet and Energy System Integration (EI2)
(Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers,
2018
), pp.
1
6
.
22.
Khallaf
,
R.
,
Naderpajouh
,
N.
, and
Hastak
,
M.
, “
Modeling three-party interactional risks in the governance of public–private partnerships
,”
J. Manage. Eng.
34
(
6
),
04018040
(
2018
).
23.
Klijn
,
E. H.
and
Koppenjan
,
J.
, “
The impact of contract characteristics on the performance of public–private partnerships (PPPs)
,”
Public Money Manage.
36
(
6
),
455
462
(
2016
).
24.
Kudelas
,
D.
,
Taušová
,
M.
,
Tauš
,
P.
,
Gabániová
,
Ľ.
, and
Koščo
,
J.
, “
Investigation of operating parameters and degradation of photovoltaic panels in a photovoltaic power plant
,”
Energies
12
(
19
),
3631
(
2019
).
25.
Liao
,
C.
,
Fei
,
D.
,
Huang
,
Q.
,
Jiang
,
L.
, and
Shi
,
P.
, “
Targeted poverty alleviation through photovoltaic-based intervention: Rhetoric and reality in Qinghai, China
,”
World Develop.
137
,
105117
(
2021
).
26.
Li
,
Y.
,
Qiu
,
Y.
, and
Wang
,
Y. D.
, “
Explaining the contract terms of energy performance contracting in China: The importance of effective financing
,”
Energy Econ.
45
,
401
411
(
2014
).
27.
Li
,
Y.
,
Zhang
,
Q.
,
Wang
,
G.
,
McLellan
,
B.
,
Liu
,
X. F.
, and
Wang
,
L.
, “
A review of photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects in China: Current status, challenge and policy recommendations
,”
Renewable Sustainable Energy Rev.
94
,
214
223
(
2018
).
28.
Liu
,
S. J.
,
Jin
,
H. Y.
,
Xie
,
B. Z.
,
Liu
,
C. L.
, and
Mills
,
A.
, “
Concession period determination for PPP retirement village
,”
Int. J. Strateg. Prop. Manage.
22
(
5
),
424
435
(
2018
).
29.
Lu
,
Q.
,
Yu
,
H.
,
Zhao
,
K.
,
Leng
,
Y.
,
Hou
,
J.
, and
Xie
,
P.
, “
Residential demand response considering distributed PV consumption: A model based on China's PV policy
,”
Energy
172
(
2019
),
443
456
(
2019
).
30.
Lv
,
J.
,
Ye
,
G.
,
Liu
,
W.
,
Shen
,
L.
, and
Wang
,
H.
, “
Alternative model for determining the optimal concession period in managing BOT transportation projects
,”
J. Manage. Eng.
31
(
4
),
04014066
(
2015
).
31.
Lv
,
J. N.
,
Zhang
,
Y. Y.
, and
Zhou
,
W.
, “
Alternative model to determine the optimal government subsidies in construction stage of PPP rail transit projects under dynamic uncertainties
,”
Math. Probl. Eng.
2020
,
12
.
32.
Ma
,
G. F.
,
Du
,
Q. J.
, and
Wang
,
K. D.
, “
A concession period and price determination model for PPP projects: Based on real options and risk allocation
,”
Sustainability
10
(
3
),
21
(
2018
).
33.
Mani
,
M.
and
Pillai
,
R.
, “
Impact of dust on solar photovoltaic (PV) performance: Research status, challenges and recommendations
,”
Renewable Sustainable Energy Rev.
14
(
9
),
3124
3131
(
2010
).
34.
Markovic
,
M. L.
and
Ciric
,
R. M.
, “
Efficiency analysis of grid-connected photovoltaic power plants
,”
CSEE J. Power Energy Syst.
3
(
3
),
269
277
(
2017
).
35.
Min
,
K. J.
,
Lou
,
C.
, and
Wang
,
C.-H.
, “
An exit and entry study of renewable power producers: A real options approach
,”
Eng. Econ.
57
(
1
),
55
75
(
2012
).
36.
Moreno
,
R.
,
Barroso
,
L. A.
,
Rudnick
,
H.
,
Mocarquer
,
S.
, and
Bezerra
,
B.
, “
Auction approaches of long-term contracts to ensure generation investment in electricity markets: Lessons from the Brazilian and Chilean experiences
,”
Energy Policy
38
(
10
),
5758
5769
(
2010
).
37.
Nandal
,
V.
,
Kumar
,
R.
, and
Singh
,
S. K.
, “
Barriers identification and analysis of solar power implementation in Indian thermal power plants: An Interpretative Structural Modeling approach
,”
Renewable Sustainable Energy Rev.
114
,
109330
(
2019
).
38.
NEA
,
China's Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Power Generation Capacity Exceeds 300 Million Kilowatts Distributed Development Has Become a New Highlight
(
NEA
,
2022
).
39.
NEA
,
Opinions on the Implementation of PV Power Generation for Poverty Alleviation
(
NEA
,
2016
).
40.
NEA, Office, S.P.A
,
National Energy Administration State Council Poverty Alleviation Office on the issuance of “Photovoltaic Poverty alleviation Power Station Management Measures” Notice
(
NEA, Office, S.P.A
.
2018
).
41.
Ngee
,
L.
,
Tiong, R.
L. K.
, and
Alum
,
J.
, “
Automated approach to negotiation of BOT contracts
,”
J. Comput. Civil. Eng.
11
(
2
),
121
128
(
1997
).
42.
Office, S.C.P.A
,
Notice on the Power Generation of Village-level Photovoltaic Poverty Alleviation Power Stations
(
Office, S.C.P.A
.
2019
).
43.
Oprea
,
S. V.
,
Bâra
,
A.
,
Preoţescu
,
D.
, and
Elefterescu
,
L.
, “
Photovoltaic Power Plants (PV-PP) reliability indicators for improving operation and maintenance activities. A case study of PV-PP agigea located in Romania
,”
IEEE Access
7
,
39142
39157
(
2019
).
44.
Parker
,
D. W.
,
Dressel
,
U.
,
Chevers
,
D.
, and
Zeppetella
,
L.
, “
Agency theory perspective on public-private-partnerships: International development project
,”
Int. J. Prod. Perform. Manage.
67
(
2
),
239
259
(
2018
).
45.
Perdreau
,
F.
,
Chaudey
,
M.
,
Chanut
,
O.
, and
Fadairo
,
M.
, “
Contract duration and contractual learning: Evidence from franchising networks
,”
Managerial Decis. Econ.
39
(
2
),
240
252
(
2018
).
46.
Polaris Solar PV Website, “
From efficiency to life, the quality of photovoltaic power stations,” retrieved from https://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20150721/644066.shtml, accessed July 21, 2015
(
2015
).
47.
Rahman
,
H. Z.
,
Miraj
,
P.
, and
Andreas
,
A.
, “
Exploring public–private partnership scheme in operation and maintenance stage of railway project
,”
Sustainability
11
(
22
),
6517
(
2019
).
48.
Roumboutsos
,
A. B.
, “
Sustainability, social discount rates and the selection of project procurement method
,”
Int. Adv. Econ. Res.
16
(
2
),
165
174
(
2010
).
49.
Samee
,
K.
and
Pongpeng
,
J.
, “
Structural equation model for construction equipment management affecting project and corporate performance
,”
KSCE J. Civil Eng.
20
(
5
),
1642
1656
(
2016
).
50.
Shi
,
W. B.
and
Feng
,
T. K.
, “
Examining supply contracts under cost and demand uncertainties from supplier's perspective: A real options approach
,”
Int. J. Prod. Res
54
(
1
),
83
97
(
2016
).
51.
Shi
,
J. G.
,
Duan
,
K. F.
,
Wen
,
S. P.
, and
Zhang
,
R.
, “
Investment valuation model of public rental housing PPP project for private sector: A real option perspective
,”
Sustainability
11
(
7
),
1857
(
2019
).
52.
Shimura
,
S.
,
Herrero
,
R.
,
Zuffo
,
M. K.
, and
Baesso Grimoni
,
J. A.
, “
Production costs estimation in photovoltaic power plants using reliability
,”
Sol. Energy
133
,
294
304
(
2016
).
53.
Sun
,
X.
and
Dong
,
W.
Carbon emissions per unit of energy consumption in different energy sources
,” retrieved from http://www.tanpaifang.com/tanjiliang/2019/0713/64634.html. Accessed July 13, 2019 (
2019
).
54.
Siva Reddy
,
V.
,
Kaushik
,
S. C.
,
Ranjan
,
K. R.
, and
Tyagi
,
S. K.
, “
State-of-the-art of solar thermal power plants—A review
,”
Renewable Sustainable Energy Rev.
27
,
258
273
(
2013
).
55.
Steinle
,
C.
,
Schiele
,
H.
, and
Ernst
,
T.
, “
Information asymmetries as antecedents of opportunism in buyer-supplier relationships: Testing principal-agent theory
,”
J. Bus.-to-Bus. Marketing
21
(
2
),
123
140
(
2014
).
56.
Sun
,
Y.
and
Zhang
,
L.
, “
Balancing public and private stakeholder interests in BOT concessions: Minimum revenue guarantee and royalty scheme applied to a water treatment project in China
,”
J. Constr. Eng. Manage.
141
(
2
),
04014070
(
2015
).
57.
Trigeorgis
,
L.
, “
Real options and interactions with financial flexibility
,”
Financ. Manage.
22
(
3
),
202
224
(
1993
).
58.
Wan
,
S.
,
Liu
,
Y.
,
Ding
,
G.
,
Runeson
,
G.
, and
Er
,
M.
, “
Risk allocation for energy performance contract from the perspective of incomplete contract: A study of commercial buildings in China
,”
Int. J. Clim. Change Strategies Manage.
(published online) (
2022
).
59.
Wang
,
Z.
,
Hou
,
Y.
, and
Ding
,
J.
, “
Design of concession period and government subsidy mechanism for public welfare PPP projects
,”
Sci. Technol. Manage. Res.
37
(
18
),
194
201
(
2017a
).
60.
Wang
,
Z.
,
Li
,
Y.
,
Wang
,
K.
, and
Huang
,
Z.
, “
Environment-adjusted operational performance evaluation of solar photovoltaic power plants: A three stage efficiency analysis
,”
Renewable Sustainable Energy Rev.
76
,
1153
1162
(
2017b
).
61.
Wang
,
Z.
,
Huang
,
F.
,
Liu
,
J.
,
Shuai
,
J.
, and
Shuai
,
C.
, “
Does solar PV bring a sustainable future to the poor? – An empirical study of anti-poverty policy effects on environmental sustainability in rural China
,”
Energy Policy
145
,
111723
(
2020
).
62.
Wang
,
Y.-B.
,
Wu
,
C.-S.
,
Liao
,
H.
, and
Xu
,
H.-H.
, “
Study on impacts of large-scale photovoltaic power station on power grid voltage profile
,” in
Third International Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation and Restructuring and Power Technologies
(Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers,
2008
), pp.
2575
2579
.
63.
Wang
,
Z.
,
Xu
,
Z.
,
Wang
,
X.
, and
Xie
,
M.
, “
A temporal-spatial cleaning optimization method for photovoltaic power plants
,”
Sustainable Energy Technol. Assess.
49
,
101691
(
2022
).
64.
Woyte
,
A.
and
Goy
,
S.
, “
11—Large grid-connected photovoltaic power plants: Best practices for the design and operation of large photovoltaic power plants
,” in
The Performance of Photovoltaic (PV) Systems
, edited by
N.
Pearsall
(
Woodhead Publishing
,
2017
), pp.
321
337
.
65.
Xin-Gang
,
Z.
and
Zhen
,
W.
, “
Technology, cost, economic performance of distributed photovoltaic industry in China
,”
Renewable Sustainable Energy Rev.
110
,
53
64
(
2019
).
66.
Xiong
,
W.
and
Zhang
,
X. Q.
, “
The real option value of renegotiation in public-private partnerships
,”
J. Constr. Eng. Manage.
142
(
8
),
11
(
2016
).
67.
Xu
,
J.-W.
,
Jiang
,
L.
, and
Moon
,
S.
, “
Determination of the optimal concession period for BOT Contract projects based on a discrete stochastic process model
,”
J. Constr. Eng. Manage.
143
(
4
),
04016119
(
2017
).
68.
Xiao-Yan
,
X. U.
and
Huan-Huan
,
W. U.
, “
Contract decisions analysis of guaranteed savings energy performance contracting based on game theory
,”
Oper. Res. Manage. Sci.
24
(
3
),
112
(
2015
).
69.
Xu
,
J.-W.
and
Moon
,
S.
, “
Stochastic revenue and cost model for determining a BOT concession period under multiple project constraints
,”
J. Manage. Eng.
30
(
3
),
04014011
(
2014
).
70.
Yilmaz
,
S.
and
Dincer
,
F.
, “
Impact of inverter capacity on the performance in large-scale photovoltaic power plants—A case study for Gainesville, Florida
,”
Renewable Sustainable Energy Rev.
79
,
15
23
(
2017
).
71.
Yu
,
C. Y.
and
Lam
,
K. C.
, “
A decision support system for the determination of concession period length in transportation project under BOT contract
,”
Autom. Constr.
31
,
114
127
(
2013
).
72.
Yue
,
F
and
C.M.C.I.P.I.R Group,
2019–2020 Research Report on the Economic Situation of China's Coal Industry
,”
China Coal
46
(
3
),
5
12
(
2020
).
73.
Zhang
,
X.
, “
The impact of contract design on performance in PPP projects
,”
Friends Accounting
2020(
16
),
95
101
(
2020
), https://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/14.1063.F.20200728.1126.076.html.
74.
Zhang
,
X.
and
AbouRizk
,
S. M.
, “
Determining a reasonable concession period for private sector provision of public works and service
,”
Can. J. Civil Eng.
33
(
5
),
622
631
(
2006
).
75.
Zhang
,
C.
,
Chu
,
J.
, and
Fu
,
G.
, “
Sobol's sensitivity analysis for a distributed hydrological model of Yichun River Basin, China
,”
J. Hydrology
480
,
58
68
(
2013
).
76.
Zhang
,
L.
,
Tang
,
Y.
,
Liu
,
T.
, and
Tian
,
B.
, “
Research on the application of contract governance in PPP projects
,”
J. Eng. Manage.
31
(
1
),
101
106
(
2017
).
77.
Zhang
,
M. H.
,
Zhang
,
Q.
,
Zhou
,
D. Q.
, and
Wang
,
L.
, “
Punishment or reward? Strategies of stakeholders in the quality of photovoltaic plants based on evolutionary game analysis in China
,”
Energy
220
(
2021
),
13
(
2021
).
78.
Zhang
,
M. M.
,
Zhou
,
D. Q.
,
Zhou
,
P.
, and
Liu
,
G. Q.
, “
Optimal feed-in tariff for solar photovoltaic power generation in China: A real options analysis
,”
Energy Policy
97
,
181
192
(
2016
).
79.
Zhao
,
C. H.
,
Zhang
,
W. R.
,
Wang
,
Y.
,
Liu
,
Q. L.
,
Guo
,
J. S.
,
Xiong
,
M. P.
, and
Yuan
,
J. H.
, “
The economics of coal power generation in China
,”
Energy Policy
105
,
1
9
(
2017
).
80.
Zeng
,
Y.
and
Chen
,
W. D.
, “
The socially optimal energy storage incentives for microgrid: A real option game-theoretic approach
,”
Sci. Total Environ.
710
,
13
(
2020
).
You do not currently have access to this content.