A stochastic influenza epidemic model where influenza virus can mutate into a mutant influenza virus is established to study the influence of environmental disturbance. And the transmission rate of the model is assumed to satisfy log-normal Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. We verify that there exists a unique global positive solution to the stochastic model. By constructing proper Lyapunov functions, sufficient conditions under which the stationary distribution exists are obtained. In addition, we discuss the extinction of the disease. Furthermore, we get the accurate expression of probability density function near the endemic equilibrium of the stochastic model. Finally, several numerical simulations are carried out to verify theoretical results and examine the influence of environmental noise.
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June 2024
Research Article|
June 11 2024
Dynamics analysis of an influenza epidemic model with virus mutation incorporating log-normal Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process
Xinhong Zhang
;
Xinhong Zhang
a)
(Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Methodology, Supervision, Writing – review & editing)
College of Science, China University of Petroleum (East China)
, Qingdao 266580, People’s Republic of China
a)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: [email protected]
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Xiaoshan Zhang
;
Xiaoshan Zhang
(Formal analysis, Software, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing)
College of Science, China University of Petroleum (East China)
, Qingdao 266580, People’s Republic of China
Search for other works by this author on:
Daqing Jiang
Daqing Jiang
(Conceptualization, Methodology)
College of Science, China University of Petroleum (East China)
, Qingdao 266580, People’s Republic of China
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a)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: [email protected]
J. Math. Phys. 65, 061503 (2024)
Article history
Received:
October 04 2023
Accepted:
May 23 2024
Citation
Xinhong Zhang, Xiaoshan Zhang, Daqing Jiang; Dynamics analysis of an influenza epidemic model with virus mutation incorporating log-normal Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. J. Math. Phys. 1 June 2024; 65 (6): 061503. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0179818
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