The classical simulation of quantum circuits is of central importance for benchmarking near-term quantum devices. The fact that gates belonging to the Clifford group can be simulated efficiently on classical computers has motivated a range of methods that scale exponentially only in the number of non-Clifford gates. Here, we consider the expectation value problem for circuits composed of Clifford gates and non-Clifford Pauli rotations and introduce a heuristic perturbative approach based on the truncation of the exponentially growing sum of Pauli terms in the Heisenberg picture. Numerical results are shown on a quantum approximate optimization algorithm benchmark for the E3LIN2 problem, and we also demonstrate how this method can be used to quantify coherent and incoherent errors of local observables in Clifford circuits. Our results indicate that this systematically improvable perturbative method offers a viable alternative to exact methods for approximating expectation values of large near-Clifford circuits.
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