Thermodynamic extrapolation has previously been used to predict arbitrary structural observables in molecular simulations at temperatures (or relative chemical potentials in open-system mixtures) different from those at which the simulation was performed. This greatly reduces the computational cost in mapping out phase and structural transitions. In this work, we explore the limitations and accuracy of thermodynamic extrapolation applied to water, where qualitative shifts from anomalous to simple-fluid-like behavior are manifested through shifts in the liquid structure that occur as a function of both temperature and density. We present formulas for extrapolating in volume for canonical ensembles and demonstrate that linear extrapolations of water’s structural properties are only accurate over a limited density range. On the other hand, linear extrapolation in temperature can be accurate across the entire liquid state. We contrast these extrapolations with classical perturbation theory techniques, which are more conservative and slowly converging. Indeed, we show that such behavior is expected by demonstrating exact relationships between extrapolation of free energies and well-known techniques to predict free energy differences. An ideal gas in an external field is also studied to more clearly explain these results for a toy system with fully analytical solutions. We also present a recursive interpolation strategy for predicting arbitrary structural properties of molecular fluids over a predefined range of state conditions, demonstrating its success in mapping qualitative shifts in water structure with density.
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