This paper proposes a novel fast online methodology for outlier detection called the exception maximization outlier detection (EMOD) algorithm, which employs probabilistic models and statistical algorithms to detect abnormal patterns from the outputs of complex systems. The EMOD is based on a two-state Gaussian mixture model and demonstrates strong performance in probability anomaly detection working on real-time raw data rather than using special prior distribution information. We confirm this using the synthetic data from two numerical cases. For the real-world data, we have detected the short-circuit pattern of the circuit system using EMOD by the current and voltage output of a three-phase inverter. The EMOD also found an abnormal period due to COVID-19 in the insured unemployment data of 53 regions in the United States from 2000 to 2024. The application of EMOD to these two real-life datasets demonstrated the effectiveness and accuracy of our algorithm.
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April 2025
Research Article|
April 10 2025
Machine learning for complex systems with abnormal pattern by exception maximization outlier detection

Special Collection:
Advances in Mathematics and Physics: from Complexity to Machine Learning
Zhikun Zhang
;
Zhikun Zhang
(Data curation, Funding acquisition, Methodology, Software, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing)
1
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
, Wuhan 430074, China
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Yiting Duan
;
Yiting Duan
(Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Software, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing)
2
School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University
, Beijing 100091, China
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Xiangjun Wang
;
Xiangjun Wang
a)
(Funding acquisition, Project administration, Supervision, Validation, Writing – review & editing)
1
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
, Wuhan 430074, China
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Mingyuan Zhang
Mingyuan Zhang
b)
(Conceptualization, Methodology, Project administration, Supervision, Writing – review & editing)
1
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
, Wuhan 430074, China
3
National Key Laboratory of Science and Technology on Vessel Integrated Power System
, Wuhan 430033, China
b)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: [email protected]
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Zhikun Zhang
1
Yiting Duan
2
Xiangjun Wang
1,a)
Mingyuan Zhang
1,3,b)
1
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
, Wuhan 430074, China
2
School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University
, Beijing 100091, China
3
National Key Laboratory of Science and Technology on Vessel Integrated Power System
, Wuhan 430033, China
Chaos 35, 043126 (2025)
Article history
Received:
November 27 2024
Accepted:
March 05 2025
Connected Content
A companion article has been published:
An algorithm for real-time anomaly detection
Citation
Zhikun Zhang, Yiting Duan, Xiangjun Wang, Mingyuan Zhang; Machine learning for complex systems with abnormal pattern by exception maximization outlier detection. Chaos 1 April 2025; 35 (4): 043126. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0250852
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