We study the spreading dynamics of content on networks. To do this, we use a model in which content spreads through a bounded-confidence mechanism. In a bounded-confidence model (BCM) of opinion dynamics, the agents of a network have continuous-valued opinions, which they adjust when they interact with agents whose opinions are sufficiently close to theirs. Our content-spreading model, which one can also interpret as an independent-cascade model, introduces a twist into BCMs by using bounded confidence for the content spread itself. We define an analog of the basic reproduction number from disease dynamics that we call an opinion reproduction number. A critical value of the opinion reproduction number indicates whether or not there is an “infodemic” (i.e., a large content-spreading cascade) of content that reflects a particular opinion. By determining this critical value, one can determine whether or not an opinion dies off or propagates widely as a cascade in a population of agents. Using configuration-model networks, we quantify the size and shape of content dissemination by calculating a variety of summary statistics, and we illustrate how network structure and spreading-model parameters affect these statistics. We find that content spreads most widely when agents have a large expected mean degree or a large receptiveness to content. When the spreading process slightly exceeds the infodemic threshold, there can be longer dissemination trees than for larger expected mean degrees or receptiveness (which both promote content sharing and hence help push content spread past the infodemic threshold), even though the total number of content shares is smaller.
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An “opinion reproduction number” for infodemics in a bounded-confidence content-spreading process on networks
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January 2025
Research Article|
January 30 2025
An “opinion reproduction number” for infodemics in a bounded-confidence content-spreading process on networks
Special Collection:
Topics in Nonlinear Science: Dedicated to David K. Campbell’s 80th Birthday
Heather Z. Brooks
;
Heather Z. Brooks
a)
(Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Software, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing)
1
Department of Mathematics, Harvey Mudd College
, Claremont, California 91711, USA
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Mason A. Porter
Mason A. Porter
b)
(Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, Project administration, Supervision, Writing – review & editing)
2
Department of Mathematics, University of California
, Los Angeles, California 90095, USA
3
Department of Sociology, University of California
, Los Angeles, California 90095, USA
4
Santa Fe Institute
, Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501, USA
b)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: [email protected]
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b)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: [email protected]
a)
Electronic mail: [email protected]
Chaos 35, 013160 (2025)
Article history
Received:
March 01 2024
Accepted:
November 16 2024
Citation
Heather Z. Brooks, Mason A. Porter; An “opinion reproduction number” for infodemics in a bounded-confidence content-spreading process on networks. Chaos 1 January 2025; 35 (1): 013160. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0206431
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