Outbreaks are complex multi-scale processes that are impacted not only by cellular dynamics and the ability of pathogens to effectively reproduce and spread, but also by population-level dynamics and the effectiveness of mitigation measures. A timely exchange of information related to the spread of novel pathogens, stay-at-home orders, and other measures can be effective at containing an infectious disease, particularly during the early stages when testing infrastructure, vaccines, and other medical interventions may not be available at scale. Using a multiplex epidemic model that consists of an information layer (modeling information exchange between individuals) and a spatially embedded epidemic layer (representing a human contact network), we study how random and targeted disruptions in the information layer (e.g., errors and intentional attacks on communication infrastructure) impact the total proportion of infections, peak prevalence (i.e., the maximum proportion of infections), and the time to reach peak prevalence. We calibrate our model to the early outbreak stages of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in 2020. Mitigation campaigns can still be effective under random disruptions, such as failure of information channels between a few individuals. However, targeted disruptions or sabotage of hub nodes that exchange information with a large number of individuals can abruptly change outbreak characteristics, such as the time to reach the peak of infection. Our results emphasize the importance of the availability of a robust communication infrastructure during an outbreak that can withstand both random and targeted disruptions.
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March 2023
Research Article|
March 27 2023
Impact of random and targeted disruptions on information diffusion during outbreaks
Special Collection:
Disruption of Networks and System Dynamics
Hosein Masoomy
;
Hosein Masoomy
a)
(Software, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing)
1
Department of Physics, Shahid Beheshti University
, 1983969411 Tehran, Iran
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Tom Chou
;
Tom Chou
b)
(Conceptualization, Validation, Writing – review & editing)
2
Department of Computational Medicine and Department of Mathematics, UCLA
, Los Angeles, California 90095, USA
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Lucas Böttcher
Lucas Böttcher
c)
(Methodology, Project administration, Software, Supervision, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing)
3
Department of Computational Science and Philosophy, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management
, 60322 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
c)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: l.boettcher@fs.de
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c)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: l.boettcher@fs.de
Note: This paper is part of the Focus Issue on Disruption of Networks and System Dynamics.
Chaos 33, 033145 (2023)
Article history
Received:
December 23 2022
Accepted:
March 02 2023
Citation
Hosein Masoomy, Tom Chou, Lucas Böttcher; Impact of random and targeted disruptions on information diffusion during outbreaks. Chaos 1 March 2023; 33 (3): 033145. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0139844
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