A deterministic excitation (DE) paradigm is formulated, according to which the abrupt late Pleistocene glacial terminations correspond to the excitation, by the orbital forcing, of nonlinear relaxation oscillations (ROs) internal to the climate system in the absence of any stochastic parameterization. Specific rules are derived from the DE paradigm: they parameterize internal climate feedbacks, which, when activated by the crossing of certain tipping points, excite a RO. Such rules are then applied to the output of an energy-balance model simulating the fluctuations induced by realistic orbital forcing on the glacial state. The timing of the glacial terminations, thus, obtained in a reference simulation is found to be in good agreement with proxy records. A sensitivity analysis insures the robustness of the timing. The potential irrelevance of noise allowing DE to hold is discussed, and a possible explanation of the 100-kyr cycle problem based on DE is outlined. In conclusion, the DE paradigm provides the simplest possible dynamical systems characterization of the link between orbital forcing and glacial terminations implied by the Milankovitch hypothesis.
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March 2023
Research Article|
March 07 2023
The deterministic excitation paradigm and the late Pleistocene glacial terminations
Special Collection:
Theory-informed and Data-driven Approaches to Advance Climate Sciences
Stefano Pierini
Stefano Pierini
a)
(Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft)
Department of Science and Technology, Parthenope University of Naples
, 80143 Napoli, Italy
a)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: stefano.pierini@uniparthenope.it
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a)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: stefano.pierini@uniparthenope.it
Note: This article is part of the Focus Issue, Theory-informed and Data-driven Approaches to Advance Climate Sciences.
Chaos 33, 033108 (2023)
Article history
Received:
September 23 2022
Accepted:
January 23 2023
Citation
Stefano Pierini; The deterministic excitation paradigm and the late Pleistocene glacial terminations. Chaos 1 March 2023; 33 (3): 033108. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0127715
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