In this work, we study the dynamics of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-susceptible epidemic model with a periodic time-dependent transmission rate. Emphasizing the influence of the seasonality frequency on the system dynamics, we analyze the largest Lyapunov exponent along parameter planes finding large chaotic regions. Furthermore, in some ranges, there are shrimp-like periodic structures. We highlight the system multistability, identifying the coexistence of periodic orbits for the same parameter values, with the infections maximum distinguishing by up one order of magnitude, depending only on the initial conditions. In this case, the basins of attraction have self-similarity. Parametric configurations, for which both periodic and non-periodic orbits occur, cover 13.20% of the evaluated range. We also identified the coexistence of periodic and chaotic attractors with different maxima of infectious cases, where the periodic scenario peak reaches approximately 50% higher than the chaotic one.
Skip Nav Destination
,
,
,
,
,
,
Article navigation
December 2023
Research Article|
December 12 2023
Multistability and chaos in SEIRS epidemic model with a periodic time-dependent transmission rate Available to Purchase
Eduardo L. Brugnago
;
Eduardo L. Brugnago
a)
(Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing)
1
Physics Institute, University of São Paulo
, 05508-090 São Paulo, SP, Brazil
a)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: [email protected]
Search for other works by this author on:
Enrique C. Gabrick
;
Enrique C. Gabrick
b)
(Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing)
2
Graduate Program in Science, State University of Ponta Grossa
, 84030-900 Ponta Grossa, PR, Brazil
Search for other works by this author on:
Kelly C. Iarosz
;
Kelly C. Iarosz
(Conceptualization, Writing – review & editing)
1
Physics Institute, University of São Paulo
, 05508-090 São Paulo, SP, Brazil
3
University Center UNIFATEB
, 84266-010 Telêmaco Borba, PR, Brazil
4
Santa Helena Institute
, 84266-010 Telêmaco Borba, PR, Brazil
Search for other works by this author on:
José D. Szezech, Jr.
;
José D. Szezech, Jr.
(Writing – review & editing)
2
Graduate Program in Science, State University of Ponta Grossa
, 84030-900 Ponta Grossa, PR, Brazil
5
Mathematics and Statistics Department, State University of Ponta Grossa
, 84030-900 Ponta Grossa, PR, Brazil
Search for other works by this author on:
Ricardo L. Viana
;
Ricardo L. Viana
(Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Supervision, Writing – review & editing)
1
Physics Institute, University of São Paulo
, 05508-090 São Paulo, SP, Brazil
6
Department of Physics, Federal University of Paraná
, 81531-980 Curitiba, PR, Brazil
Search for other works by this author on:
Antonio M. Batista
;
Antonio M. Batista
(Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Supervision, Writing – review & editing)
1
Physics Institute, University of São Paulo
, 05508-090 São Paulo, SP, Brazil
2
Graduate Program in Science, State University of Ponta Grossa
, 84030-900 Ponta Grossa, PR, Brazil
5
Mathematics and Statistics Department, State University of Ponta Grossa
, 84030-900 Ponta Grossa, PR, Brazil
Search for other works by this author on:
Iberê L. Caldas
Iberê L. Caldas
(Formal analysis, Supervision, Writing – review & editing)
1
Physics Institute, University of São Paulo
, 05508-090 São Paulo, SP, Brazil
Search for other works by this author on:
Eduardo L. Brugnago
1,a)
Enrique C. Gabrick
2,b)
Kelly C. Iarosz
1,3,4
José D. Szezech, Jr.
2,5
Ricardo L. Viana
1,6
Antonio M. Batista
1,2,5
Iberê L. Caldas
1
1
Physics Institute, University of São Paulo
, 05508-090 São Paulo, SP, Brazil
2
Graduate Program in Science, State University of Ponta Grossa
, 84030-900 Ponta Grossa, PR, Brazil
3
University Center UNIFATEB
, 84266-010 Telêmaco Borba, PR, Brazil
4
Santa Helena Institute
, 84266-010 Telêmaco Borba, PR, Brazil
5
Mathematics and Statistics Department, State University of Ponta Grossa
, 84030-900 Ponta Grossa, PR, Brazil
6
Department of Physics, Federal University of Paraná
, 81531-980 Curitiba, PR, Brazil
a)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: [email protected]
b)
Electronic mail: [email protected]
Chaos 33, 123123 (2023)
Article history
Received:
April 29 2023
Accepted:
November 13 2023
Citation
Eduardo L. Brugnago, Enrique C. Gabrick, Kelly C. Iarosz, José D. Szezech, Ricardo L. Viana, Antonio M. Batista, Iberê L. Caldas; Multistability and chaos in SEIRS epidemic model with a periodic time-dependent transmission rate. Chaos 1 December 2023; 33 (12): 123123. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0156452
Download citation file:
Pay-Per-View Access
$40.00
Sign In
You could not be signed in. Please check your credentials and make sure you have an active account and try again.
Citing articles via
Rogue waves: Theory, methods, and applications—30 years after the Draupner wave
Zhenya Yan, Boris A. Malomed, et al.
Selecting embedding delays: An overview of embedding techniques and a new method using persistent homology
Eugene Tan, Shannon Algar, et al.
Enhancing reservoir predictions of chaotic time series by incorporating delayed values of input and reservoir variables
Luk Fleddermann, Sebastian Herzog, et al.
Related Content
Effects of quasiperiodic forcing in epidemic models
Chaos (September 2016)
Control, bi-stability, and preference for chaos in time-dependent vaccination campaign
Chaos (September 2024)
Impact of periodic vaccination in SEIRS seasonal model
Chaos (January 2024)
NLSI: An innovative method to locate epidemic sources on the SEIR propagation model
Chaos (August 2023)
A modified SEIR model applied to the data of COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia
AIP Advances (December 2020)