Effective strategies of vaccine prioritization are essential to mitigate the impacts of severe infectious diseases. We investigate the role of infection fatality ratio (IFR) and social contact matrices on vaccination prioritization using a compartmental epidemic model fueled by real-world data of different diseases and countries. Our study confirms that massive and early vaccination is extremely effective to reduce the disease fatality if the contagion is mitigated, but the effectiveness is increasingly reduced as vaccination beginning delays in an uncontrolled epidemiological scenario. The optimal and least effective prioritization strategies depend non-linearly on epidemiological variables. Regions of the epidemiological parameter space, in which prioritizing the most vulnerable population is more effective than the most contagious individuals, depend strongly on the IFR age profile being, for example, substantially broader for COVID-19 in comparison with seasonal influenza. Demographics and social contact matrices deform the phase diagrams but do not alter their qualitative shapes.
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Effects of infection fatality ratio and social contact matrices on vaccine prioritization strategies
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September 2022
Research Article|
September 02 2022
Effects of infection fatality ratio and social contact matrices on vaccine prioritization strategies

Arthur Schulenburg
;
Arthur Schulenburg
(Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Writing – review & editing)
1
Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Viçosa
, Viçosa, Minas Gerais 36570-900, Brazil
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Wesley Cota
;
Wesley Cota
a)
(Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Software, Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing)
1
Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Viçosa
, Viçosa, Minas Gerais 36570-900, Brazil
a)Also at: Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 05403-000, Brazil and Departamento de Infectologia, Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Botucatu, São Paulo 18618-687, Brazil. Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: wesley@wcota.me
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Guilherme S. Costa
;
Guilherme S. Costa
(Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Validation, Writing – review & editing)
1
Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Viçosa
, Viçosa, Minas Gerais 36570-900, Brazil
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Silvio C. Ferreira
Silvio C. Ferreira
b)
(Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Supervision, Validation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing)
1
Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Viçosa
, Viçosa, Minas Gerais 36570-900, Brazil
2
National Institute of Science and Technology for Complex Systems
, Rio de Janeiro 22290-180, Brazil
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a)Also at: Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 05403-000, Brazil and Departamento de Infectologia, Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Botucatu, São Paulo 18618-687, Brazil. Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: wesley@wcota.me
b)
Electronic mail: silviojr@ufv.br
Chaos 32, 093102 (2022)
Article history
Received:
April 19 2022
Accepted:
August 01 2022
Connected Content
A companion article has been published:
Optimizing vaccination strategies for disease outbreaks
Citation
Arthur Schulenburg, Wesley Cota, Guilherme S. Costa, Silvio C. Ferreira; Effects of infection fatality ratio and social contact matrices on vaccine prioritization strategies. Chaos 1 September 2022; 32 (9): 093102. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0096532
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