Unstable periodic orbits (UPOs) are a valuable tool for studying chaotic dynamical systems, as they allow one to distill their dynamical structure. We consider here the Lorenz 1963 model with the classic parameters’ value. We investigate how a chaotic trajectory can be approximated using a complete set of UPOs up to symbolic dynamics’ period 14. At each instant, we rank the UPOs according to their proximity to the position of the orbit in the phase space. We study this process from two different perspectives. First, we find that longer period UPOs overwhelmingly provide the best local approximation to the trajectory. Second, we construct a finite-state Markov chain by studying the scattering of the orbit between the neighborhood of the various UPOs. Each UPO and its neighborhood are taken as a possible state of the system. Through the analysis of the subdominant eigenvectors of the corresponding stochastic matrix, we provide a different interpretation of the mixing processes occurring in the system by taking advantage of the concept of quasi-invariant sets.
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March 2022
Research Article|
March 23 2022
Decomposing the dynamics of the Lorenz 1963 model using unstable periodic orbits: Averages, transitions, and quasi-invariant sets
Special Collection:
Theory-informed and Data-driven Approaches to Advance Climate Sciences
Chiara Cecilia Maiocchi
;
Chiara Cecilia Maiocchi
a)
1
Centre for the Mathematics of Planet Earth, University of Reading
, Reading RG6 6AH, United Kingdom
2
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Reading
, Reading RG6 6AH, United Kingdom
a)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: c.maiocchi@pgr.reading.ac.uk
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Valerio Lucarini
;
Valerio Lucarini
b)
1
Centre for the Mathematics of Planet Earth, University of Reading
, Reading RG6 6AH, United Kingdom
2
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Reading
, Reading RG6 6AH, United Kingdom
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Andrey Gritsun
Andrey Gritsun
c)
3
Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences
, Moscow 119333, Russia
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a)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: c.maiocchi@pgr.reading.ac.uk
b)
Email: v.lucarini@reading.ac.uk
c)
Email: asgrit@mail.ru
Note: This article is part of the Focus Issue, Theory-informed and Data-driven Approaches to Advance Climate Sciences.
Chaos 32, 033129 (2022)
Article history
Received:
August 18 2021
Accepted:
February 21 2022
Citation
Chiara Cecilia Maiocchi, Valerio Lucarini, Andrey Gritsun; Decomposing the dynamics of the Lorenz 1963 model using unstable periodic orbits: Averages, transitions, and quasi-invariant sets. Chaos 1 March 2022; 32 (3): 033129. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0067673
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