In this paper, we present a new method for successfully simulating the dynamics of COVID-19, experimentally focusing on the third wave. This method, namely, the Method of Parallel Trajectories (MPT), is based on the recently introduced self-organized diffusion model. According to this method, accurate simulation of the dynamics of the COVID-19 infected population evolution is accomplished by considering not the total data for the infected population, but successive segments of it. By changing the initial conditions with which each segment of the simulation is produced, we achieve close and detailed monitoring of the evolution of the pandemic, providing a tool for evaluating the overall situation and the fine-tuning of the restrictive measures. Finally, the application of the proposed MPT on simulating the pandemic's third wave dynamics in Greece and Italy is presented, verifying the method's effectiveness.
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January 2022
Research Article|
January 11 2022
Application of the method of parallel trajectories on modeling the dynamics of COVID-19 third wave

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Y. Contoyiannis
;
Y. Contoyiannis
1
Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, University of West Attica
, Ancient Olive Grove Campus, 250 Thivon and P. Ralli, Athens GR12244, Greece
2
Physics Department, University of Athens
, Athens GR15784, Greece
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S. G. Stavrinides
;
S. G. Stavrinides
a)
3
School of Science and Technology, International Hellenic University
, Thermi Campus, Thessaloniki GR57001, Greece
a)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: [email protected]
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M. P. Hanias
;
M. P. Hanias
4
Physics Department, International Hellenic University
, Kavala Campus, Kavala GR65404, Greece
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M. Kampitakis
;
M. Kampitakis
5
Major Network Installations Department, Hellenic Electricity Distribution Network Operator SA
, Athens GR18547, Greece
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P. Papadopoulos
;
P. Papadopoulos
1
Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, University of West Attica
, Ancient Olive Grove Campus, 250 Thivon and P. Ralli, Athens GR12244, Greece
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R. Picos
;
R. Picos
6
Department of Industrial Engineering and Construction, University of Balearic Islands
, Palma Majorca ES07122, Spain
7
Balearic Islands Health Research Institute (IdISBa), Palma Majorca, ES07120
, Spain
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S. M. Potirakis
;
S. M. Potirakis
1
Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, University of West Attica
, Ancient Olive Grove Campus, 250 Thivon and P. Ralli, Athens GR12244, Greece
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E. Kosmidis
E. Kosmidis
8
Laboratory of Physiology, Department of Medicine, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
, Thessaloniki GR54124, Greece
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Y. Contoyiannis
1,2
S. G. Stavrinides
3,a)
M. P. Hanias
4
M. Kampitakis
5
P. Papadopoulos
1
R. Picos
6,7
S. M. Potirakis
1
E. Kosmidis
8
1
Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, University of West Attica
, Ancient Olive Grove Campus, 250 Thivon and P. Ralli, Athens GR12244, Greece
2
Physics Department, University of Athens
, Athens GR15784, Greece
3
School of Science and Technology, International Hellenic University
, Thermi Campus, Thessaloniki GR57001, Greece
4
Physics Department, International Hellenic University
, Kavala Campus, Kavala GR65404, Greece
5
Major Network Installations Department, Hellenic Electricity Distribution Network Operator SA
, Athens GR18547, Greece
6
Department of Industrial Engineering and Construction, University of Balearic Islands
, Palma Majorca ES07122, Spain
7
Balearic Islands Health Research Institute (IdISBa), Palma Majorca, ES07120
, Spain
8
Laboratory of Physiology, Department of Medicine, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
, Thessaloniki GR54124, Greece
a)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: [email protected]
Chaos 32, 011103 (2022)
Article history
Received:
October 20 2021
Accepted:
November 18 2021
Citation
Y. Contoyiannis, S. G. Stavrinides, M. P. Hanias, M. Kampitakis, P. Papadopoulos, R. Picos, S. M. Potirakis, E. Kosmidis; Application of the method of parallel trajectories on modeling the dynamics of COVID-19 third wave. Chaos 1 January 2022; 32 (1): 011103. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0075987
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