This paper investigates the relationship between the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, the state of community activity, and the financial index performance across 20 countries. First, we analyze which countries behaved similarly in 2020 with respect to one of three multivariate time series: daily COVID-19 cases, Apple mobility data, and national equity index price. Next, we study the trajectories of all three of these attributes in conjunction to determine which exhibited greater similarity. Finally, we investigate whether country financial indices or mobility data responded more quickly to surges in COVID-19 cases. Our results indicate that mobility data and national financial indices exhibited the most similarity in their trajectories, with financial indices responding quicker. This suggests that financial market participants may have interpreted and responded to COVID-19 data more efficiently than governments. Furthermore, results imply that efforts to study community mobility data as a leading indicator for financial market performance during the pandemic were misguided.
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August 2021
Research Article|
August 13 2021
Efficiency of communities and financial markets during the 2020 pandemic
Nick James
;
Nick James
1
School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne
, Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia
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Max Menzies
Max Menzies
a)
2
Yau Mathematical Sciences Center, Tsinghua University
, Beijing 100084, China
a)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: max.menzies@alumni.harvard.edu
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a)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: max.menzies@alumni.harvard.edu
Chaos 31, 083116 (2021)
Article history
Received:
April 19 2021
Accepted:
July 23 2021
Citation
Nick James, Max Menzies; Efficiency of communities and financial markets during the 2020 pandemic. Chaos 1 August 2021; 31 (8): 083116. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0054493
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