The COVID-19 pandemic has laid bare the importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the containment of airborne infectious diseases. Social distancing and mask-wearing have been found to contain COVID-19 spreading across a number of observational studies, but a precise understanding of their combined effectiveness is lacking. An underdeveloped area of research entails the quantification of the specific role of each of these measures when they are differentially adopted by the population. Pursuing this research allows for answering several pressing questions like: how many people should follow public health measures for them to be effective for everybody? Is it sufficient to practice social distancing only or just wear a mask? Here, we make a first step in this direction, by establishing a susceptible–exposed–infected–removed epidemic model on a temporal network, evolving according to the activity-driven paradigm. Through analytical and numerical efforts, we study epidemic spreading as a function of the proportion of the population following public health measures, the extent of social distancing, and the efficacy of masks in protecting the wearer and others. Our model demonstrates that social distancing and mask-wearing can be effective in preventing COVID-19 outbreaks if adherence to both measures involves a substantial fraction of the population.
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April 2021
Research Article|
April 13 2021
How adherence to public health measures shapes epidemic spreading: A temporal network model
Brandon M. Behring;
Brandon M. Behring
1
Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Tandon School of Engineering, New York University, Six MetroTech Center
, Brooklyn, New York 11201, USA
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Alessandro Rizzo
;
Alessandro Rizzo
a)
2
Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Politecnico di Torino
, 10128 Torino, Italy
3
Office of Innovation, Tandon School of Engineering, New York University, Six MetroTech Center
, Brooklyn, New York 11201, USA
a)Electronic mail: [email protected]
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Maurizio Porfiri
1
Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Tandon School of Engineering, New York University, Six MetroTech Center
, Brooklyn, New York 11201, USA
4
Department of Biomedical Engineering, Tandon School of Engineering, New York University, Six MetroTech Center
, Brooklyn, New York 11201, USA
5
Center for Urban Science and Progress, Tandon School of Engineering, New York University
, 370 Jay Street, Brooklyn, New York 11201, USA
a)Electronic mail: [email protected]
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a)Electronic mail: [email protected]
b)
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: [email protected]
Citation
Brandon M. Behring, Alessandro Rizzo, Maurizio Porfiri; How adherence to public health measures shapes epidemic spreading: A temporal network model. Chaos 1 April 2021; 31 (4): 043115. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0041993
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