Recently, it has been successfully shown that the temporal evolution of the fraction of COVID-19 infected people possesses the same dynamics as the ones demonstrated by a self-organizing diffusion model over a lattice, in the frame of universality. In this brief, the relevant emerging dynamics are further investigated. Evidence that this nonlinear model demonstrates critical dynamics is scrutinized within the frame of the physics of critical phenomena. Additionally, the concept of criticality over the infected population fraction in epidemics (or a pandemic) is introduced and its importance is discussed, highlighting the emergence of the critical slowdown phenomenon. A simple method is proposed for estimating how far away a population is from this “singular” state, by utilizing the theory of critical phenomena. Finally, a dynamic approach applying the self-organized diffusion model is proposed, resulting in more accurate simulations, which can verify the effectiveness of restrictive measures. All the above are supported by real epidemic data case studies.
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April 2021
Research Article|
April 07 2021
Criticality in epidemic spread: An application in the case of COVID19 infected population
Y. Contoyiannis
;
Y. Contoyiannis
1
Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, University of West Attica
, Ancient Olive Grove Campus, 250 Thivon and P. Ralli, Aigaleo, Athens GR-12244, Greece
2
Physics Department, University of Athens
, 15784 Athens, Greece
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S. G. Stavrinides
;
S. G. Stavrinides
a)
3
School of Science and Technology, International Hellenic University
, Thermi Campus, 57001 Thessaloniki, Greece
a)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: [email protected]
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M. P. Hanias
;
M. P. Hanias
4
Physics Department, International Hellenic University, St Lucas
, 65404 Kavala, Greece
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M. Kampitakis
;
M. Kampitakis
5
Major Network Installations Department, Hellenic Electricity Distribution Network Operator S.A.
, 18547 Athens, Greece
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P. Papadopoulos
;
P. Papadopoulos
1
Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, University of West Attica
, Ancient Olive Grove Campus, 250 Thivon and P. Ralli, Aigaleo, Athens GR-12244, Greece
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R. Picos
;
R. Picos
6
Department of Industrial Engineering and Construction, University of Balearic Islands
, 07122 Palma, Spain
7
Balearic Islands Health Research Institute (IdISBa)
, 07120 Palma, Spain
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S. M. Potirakis
;
S. M. Potirakis
1
Department of Industrial Engineering and Construction, University of Balearic Islands
, 07122 Palma, Spain
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E. K. Kosmidis
E. K. Kosmidis
8
Laboratory of Physiology, Department of Medicine, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
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a)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: [email protected]
Chaos 31, 043109 (2021)
Article history
Received:
February 06 2021
Accepted:
March 22 2021
Citation
Y. Contoyiannis, S. G. Stavrinides, M. P. Hanias, M. Kampitakis, P. Papadopoulos, R. Picos, S. M. Potirakis, E. K. Kosmidis; Criticality in epidemic spread: An application in the case of COVID19 infected population. Chaos 1 April 2021; 31 (4): 043109. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0046772
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