The emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has infected more than 62 million people worldwide. Control responses varied across countries with different outcomes in terms of epidemic size and social disruption. This study presents an age-specific susceptible-exposed-infected-recovery-death model that considers the unique characteristics of COVID-19 to examine the effectiveness of various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in New York City (NYC). Numerical experiments from our model show that the control policies implemented in NYC reduced the number of infections by 72% [interquartile range (IQR) 53–95] and the number of deceased cases by 76% (IQR 58–96) by the end of 2020. Among all the NPIs, social distancing for the entire population and protection for the elderly in public facilities is the most effective control measure in reducing severe infections and deceased cases. School closure policy may not work as effectively as one might expect in terms of reducing the number of deceased cases. Our simulation results provide novel insights into the city-specific implementation of NPIs with minimal social disruption considering the locations and population characteristics.
REFERENCES
1
WHO
, See https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiological-update-24-november-2020 for Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Weekly Epidemiological Update (accessed November 30, 2020).2
R. M.
Anderson
, H.
Heesterbeek
, D.
Klinkenberg
, and T. D.
Hollingsworth
, Lancet
395
(10228
), 931
–934
(2020
). 3
S.
Chen
, J.
Yang
, W.
Yang
, C.
Wang
, and T.
Bärnighausen
, Lancet
395
(10226
), 764
–766
(2020
). 4
E.
Shim
, A.
Tariq
, W.
Choi
, Y.
Lee
, and G.
Chowell
, Int. J. Infect. Dis.
93
, 339
–344
(2020
). 5
V. C. C.
Cheng
, S. C.
Wong
, J. H. K.
Chen
, C. C. Y.
Yip
, V. W. M.
Chuang
, O. T. Y.
Tsang
, S.
Sridhar
, J. F. W.
Chan
, P. L.
Ho
, and K. Y.
Yuen
, Infect. Control Hosp. Epidemiol.
41
(5
), 493
–498
(2020
). 6
G. A. M.
Cuomo
, See https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-signs-new-york-state-pause-executive-order for Governor Cuomo Signs the ‘New York State on PAUSE’ Executive Order (accessed August 11, 2020).7
See https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Map?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n for New York State Department of Health COVID-19 tracker (accessed November 30, 2020).
8
K.
Prem
, Y.
Liu
, T. W.
Russell
, A. J.
Kucharski
, R. M.
Eggo
, N.
Davies
, M.
Jit
, P.
Klepac
, S.
Flasche
, S.
Clifford
, C. A. B.
Pearson
, J. D.
Munday
, S.
Abbott
, H.
Gibbs
, A.
Rosello
, B. J.
Quilty
, T.
Jombart
, F.
Sun
, C.
Diamond
, A.
Gimma
, K.
van Zandvoort
, S.
Funk
, C. I.
Jarvis
, W. J.
Edmunds
, N. I.
Bosse
, and J.
Hellewell
, Lancet Publ. Health
5
(5
), e261
–e270
(2020
).9
N. G.
Davies
, P.
Klepac
, Y.
Liu
, K.
Prem
, M.
Jit
, and R. M.
Eggo
, medRxiv:2020.2003.2024.20043018 (2020).10
11
Y.
Liu
, Z.
Gu
, S.
Xia
, B.
Shi
, X.-N.
Zhou
, Y.
Shi
, and J.
Liu
, EClin. Med.
22
, 100354
(2020
). 12
D.
Santesmasses
, J. P.
Castro
, A. A.
Zenin
, A. V.
Shindyapina
, M. V.
Gerashchenko
, B.
Zhang
, C.
Kerepesi
, S. H.
Yim
, P. O.
Fedichev
, and V. N.
Gladyshev
, medRxiv:2020.2004.2015.20060095 (2020).13
D. J.
Earn
, D.
He
, M. B.
Loeb
, K.
Fonseca
, B. E.
Lee
, and J.
Dushoff
, Ann. Intern. Med.
156
(3
), 173
–181
(2012
). 14
J.
Bayham
and E. P.
Fenichel
, Lancet Publ. Health
5
(5
), e271
–e278
(2020
).15
Epidemiology Working Group for NCIP Epidemic Response, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
, Chin. J. Epidemiol.
41
(2
), 145
–151
(2020
). 16
CDC-USA
, See https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics for CDC COVID data tracker (accessed November 30, 2020).17
K.
Prem
, A. R.
Cook
, and M.
Jit
, PLoS Comput. Biol.
13
(9
), e1005697
(2017
). 18
L.
Fumanelli
, M.
Ajelli
, P.
Manfredi
, A.
Vespignani
, and S.
Merler
, PLoS Comput. Biol.
8
(9
), e1002673
(2012
). 19
P.
Klepac
and H.
Caswell
, Theor. Ecol.
4
(3
), 301
–319
(2011
). 20
J. T.
Wu
, K.
Leung
, and G. M.
Leung
, Lancet
395
(10225
), 689
–697
(2020
).21
J.
Riou
and C. L.
Althaus
, Eurosurveillance
25
(4
), 2000058
(2020
). 22
R.
Verity
, L. C.
Okell
, I.
Dorigatti
, P.
Winskill
, C.
Whittaker
, N.
Imai
, G.
CuomoDannenburg
, H.
Thompson
, P. G. T.
Walker
, H.
Fu
, A.
Dighe
, J. T.
Griffin
, M.
Baguelin
, S.
Bhatia
, A.
Boonyasiri
, A.
Cori
, Z.
Cucunubá
, R.
FitzJohn
, K.
Gaythorpe
, W.
Green
, A.
Hamlet
, W.
Hinsley
, D.
Laydon
, G.
Nedjati-Gilani
, S.
Riley
, S.
van Elsland
, E.
Volz
, H.
Wang
, Y.
Wang
, X.
Xi
, C. A.
Donnelly
, A. C.
Ghani
, and N. M.
Ferguson
, Lancet Infect. Dis.
20
(6
), 669
–677
(2020
).23
K.
Mizumoto
, K.
Kagaya
, A.
Zarebski
, and G.
Chowell
, Eurosurveillance
25
(10
), 2000180
(2020
). 24
25
B.
Nogrady
, Nature
587
(7835
), 534
–535
(2020
).26
H. S.
Badr
, H.
Du
, M.
Marshall
, E.
Dong
, M. M.
Squire
, and L. M.
Gardner
, Lancet Infect. Dis.
20
(11
), 1247
–1254
(2020
).27
Y.
Liu
, V. W. G. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases nCo, S. Funk and S. Flasche
, Wellcome open research
5
, 58
–58
(2020
). 28
NYC-Government
, See https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page for COVID-19: Data (accessed November 30, 2020).29
T.
Alberti
and D.
Faranda
, Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul.
90
, 105372
(2020
). 30
31
P.
Bittihn
and R.
Golestanian
, Chaos
30
(10
), 101102
(2020
). 32
Q.
Li
, X.
Guan
, P.
Wu
, X.
Wang
, L.
Zhou
, Y.
Tong
, R.
Ren
, K. S. M.
Leung
, E. H. Y.
Lau
, J. Y.
Wong
, X.
Xing
, N.
Xiang
, Y.
Wu
, C.
Li
, Q.
Chen
, D.
Li
, T.
Liu
, J.
Zhao
, M.
Liu
, W.
Tu
, C.
Chen
, L.
Jin
, R.
Yang
, Q.
Wang
, S.
Zhou
, R.
Wang
, H.
Liu
, Y.
Luo
, Y.
Liu
, G.
Shao
, H.
Li
, Z.
Tao
, Y.
Yang
, Z.
Deng
, B.
Liu
, Z.
Ma
, Y.
Zhang
, G.
Shi
, T. T. Y.
Lam
, J. T.
Wu
, G. F.
Gao
, B. J.
Cowling
, B.
Yang
, G. M.
Leung
, and Z.
Feng
, N. Engl. J. Med.
382
(13
), 1199
–1207
(2020
). 33
S. M.
Moghadas
, A.
Shoukat
, M. C.
Fitzpatrick
, C. R.
Wells
, P.
Sah
, A.
Pandey
, J. D.
Sachs
, Z.
Wang
, L. A.
Meyers
, B. H.
Singer
, and A. P.
Galvani
, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.
117
(16
), 9122
–9126
(2020
). 34
H.
Nishiura
, T.
Kobayashi
, T.
Miyama
, A.
Suzuki
, S.
Jung
, K.
Hayashi
, R.
Kinoshita
, Y.
Yang
, B.
Yuan
, A. R.
Akhmetzhanov
, and N. M.
Linton
, medRxiv:2020.2002.2003.20020248 (2020).35
D.
Wang
, B.
Hu
, C.
Hu
, F.
Zhu
, X.
Liu
, J.
Zhang
, B.
Wang
, H.
Xiang
, Z.
Cheng
, Y.
Xiong
, Y.
Zhao
, Y.
Li
, X.
Wang
, and Z.
Peng
, JAMA
323
(11
), 1061
–1069
(2020
). 36
X.
Yang
, Y.
Yu
, J.
Xu
, H.
Shu
, J.
Xia
, H.
Liu
, Y.
Wu
, L.
Zhang
, Z.
Yu
, M.
Fang
, T.
Yu
, Y.
Wang
, S.
Pan
, X.
Zou
, S.
Yuan
, and Y.
Shang
, Lancet Respir. Med.
8
(5
), 475
–481
(2020
).37
WHO–China
, Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (2020); available at https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf38
Z.
Du
, E.
Javan
, C.
Nugent
, B. J.
Cowling
, and L. A.
Meyers
, EClin. Med.
26
, 100479
(2020
). 39
A.
Aktay,
, S.
Bavadekar
, G.
Cossoul
, J.
Davis
, D.
Desfontaines
, A.
Fabrikant
, E.
Gabrilovich
, K.
Gadepalli
, B.
Gipson
, and M.
Guevara
, arXiv:2004.04145 (2020).40
M. G. M.
Stevens
, See https://www.nytimes.com/article/new-york-phase-reopening.html for The New York Times (accessed September 4, 2020).41
WHO
, See https://www.who.int/healthinfo/survey/ageingdefnolder/en/ for “WHO | Definition of an older or elderly person” (accessed September 4, 2020).42
N.
Ferguson
, D.
Laydon
, G.
Nedjati Gilani
, N.
Imai
, K.
Ainslie
, M.
Baguelin
, S.
Bhatia
, A.
Boonyasiri
, Z.
Cucunuba Perez
, and G.
Cuomo-Dannenburg
, Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand (2020); available at https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf43
Q.
Bi
, Y.
Wu
, S.
Mei
, C.
Ye
, X.
Zou
, Z.
Zhang
, X.
Liu
, L.
Wei
, S. A.
Truelove
, T.
Zhang
, W.
Gao
, C.
Cheng
, X.
Tang
, X.
Wu
, Y.
Wu
, B.
Sun
, S.
Huang
, Y.
Sun
, J.
Zhang
, T.
Ma
, J.
Lessler
, and T.
Feng
, Lancet Infect. Dis.
20
(8
), 911
–919
(2020
). 44
R.
Li
, S.
Pei
, B.
Chen
, Y.
Song
, T.
Zhang
, W.
Yang
, and J.
Shaman
, Science
368
(6490
), 489
–493
(2020
). 45
46
N.
James
and M.
Menzies
, Chaos
30
(9
), 091102
(2020
). 47
B.
Cheng
and Y.-M.
Wang
, Chaos
30
(12
), 123135
(2020
). 48
P.
Liu
, P.
Beeler
, and R. K.
Chakrabarty
, Chaos
30
(7
), 071102
(2020
). 49
R. M.
Viner
, S. J.
Russell
, H.
Croker
, J.
Packer
, J.
Ward
, C.
Stansfield
, O.
Mytton
, C.
Bonell
, and R.
Booy
, Lancet Child Adolesc. Health
4
(5
), 397
–404
(2020
). 50
L.
Thunström
, S. C.
Newbold
, D.
Finnoff
, M.
Ashworth
, and J. F.
Shogren
, J. Benefit-Cost Anal.
11
(2
), 179
–195
(2020
). 51
C.
Huang,
Y.
Wang
, X.
Li
, L.
Ren
, J.
Zhao
, Y.
Hu
, L.
Zhang
, G.
Fan
, J.
Xu
, and X.
Gu
, Lancet
395
(10223
), 497
–506
(2020
). 52
BBC
, See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51895873 for Coronavirus isolation for over-70 s ‘within weeks’ (accessed August 8, 2020).53
J. K.
Hale
and H.
Koçak
, Dynamics and Bifurcations
(Springer Science & Business Media
, 2012
).54
J. J.
Yang
(2020
). “Age-specific-SEIRD
.” see https://github.com/JasonJYang/Age-specific-SEIRD
.© 2021 Author(s).
2021
Author(s)
You do not currently have access to this content.