We present a hybrid framework appropriate for identifying distinct dynamical regimes and transitions in a paleoclimate time series. Our framework combines three powerful techniques used independently of each other in time series analysis: a recurrence plot, manifold learning through Laplacian eigenmaps, and Fisher information metric. The resulting hybrid approach achieves a more automated classification and visualization of dynamical regimes and transitions, including in the presence of missing values, observational noise, and short time series. We illustrate the capabilities of the method through several pragmatic numerical examples. Furthermore, to demonstrate the practical usefulness of the method, we apply it to a recently published paleoclimate dataset: a speleothem oxygen isotope record from North India covering the past 5700 years. This record encodes the patterns of monsoon rainfall over the region and covers the critically important period during which the Indus Valley Civilization matured and declined. We identify a transition in monsoon dynamics, indicating a possible connection between climate change and the decline of the Indus Valley Civilization.
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Research Article| August 03 2020
Uncovering transitions in paleoclimate time series and the climate driven demise of an ancient civilization
Special Collection: Rare Events in Complex Systems: Understanding and Prediction
Nishant Malik a)
School of Mathematical Sciences, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rochester, New York 14623,
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Note: This article is part of the Focus Issue, Rare Events in Complex Systems: Understanding and Prediciton.
Chaos 30, 083108 (2020)
April 27 2020
July 13 2020
Nishant Malik; Uncovering transitions in paleoclimate time series and the climate driven demise of an ancient civilization. Chaos 1 August 2020; 30 (8): 083108. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0012059
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