Many complex networks are built up from empirical data prone to experimental error. Thus, the determination of the specific weights of the links is a noisy measure. Noise propagates to those macroscopic variables researchers are interested in, such as the critical threshold for synchronization of coupled oscillators or for the spreading of a disease. Here, we apply error propagation to estimate the macroscopic uncertainty in the critical threshold for some dynamical processes in networks with noisy links. We obtain closed form expressions for the mean and standard deviation of the critical threshold depending on the properties of the noise and the moments of the degree distribution of the network. The analysis provides confidence intervals for critical predictions when dealing with uncertain measurements or intrinsic fluctuations in empirical networked systems. Furthermore, our results unveil a nonmonotonous behavior of the uncertainty of the critical threshold that depends on the specific network structure.
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February 2020
Research Article|
February 19 2020
Uncertainty propagation in complex networks: From noisy links to critical properties
Lluís Arola-Fernández
;
Lluís Arola-Fernández
1
Departament d’Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques, Universitat Rovira i Virgili
, 43007 Tarragona, Catalonia, Spain
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Guillem Mosquera-Doñate;
Guillem Mosquera-Doñate
2
Center for Complexity Science, University of Warwick
, Coventry CV4 7AL, United Kingdom
3
The Alan Turing Institute
, London NW1 2DB, United Kingdom
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Benjamin Steinegger
;
Benjamin Steinegger
1
Departament d’Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques, Universitat Rovira i Virgili
, 43007 Tarragona, Catalonia, Spain
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Alex Arenas
Alex Arenas
a)
1
Departament d’Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques, Universitat Rovira i Virgili
, 43007 Tarragona, Catalonia, Spain
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a)
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: alexandre.arenas@urv.cat
Note: This paper is part of the Focus Issue on Symmetry and Optimization in the Synchronization and Collective Behavior of Complex Systems.
Chaos 30, 023129 (2020)
Article history
Received:
October 01 2019
Accepted:
February 01 2020
Citation
Lluís Arola-Fernández, Guillem Mosquera-Doñate, Benjamin Steinegger, Alex Arenas; Uncertainty propagation in complex networks: From noisy links to critical properties. Chaos 1 February 2020; 30 (2): 023129. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5129630
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