The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, due to SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2), originated in Wuhan, China and is now a global pandemic. The unavailability of vaccines, delays in diagnosis of the disease, and lack of proper treatment resources are the leading causes of the rapid spread of COVID-19. The world is now facing a rapid loss of human lives and socioeconomic status. As a mathematical model can provide some real pictures of the disease spread, enabling better prevention measures. In this study, we propose and analyze a mathematical model to describe the COVID-19 pandemic. We have derived the threshold parameter basic reproduction number, and a detailed sensitivity analysis of this most crucial threshold parameter has been performed to determine the most sensitive indices. Finally, the model is applied to describe COVID-19 scenarios in India, the second-largest populated country in the world, and some of its vulnerable states. We also have short-term forecasting of COVID-19, and we have observed that controlling only one model parameter can significantly reduce the disease’s vulnerability.
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November 2020
Research Article|
November 06 2020
Modeling and control of COVID-19: A short-term forecasting in the context of India
Manotosh Mandal
;
Manotosh Mandal
a)
1
Department of Mathematics, Tamralipta Mahavidyalaya
, Tamluk 721636, West Bengal, India
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Soovoojeet Jana
;
Soovoojeet Jana
b)
2
Department of Mathematics, Ramsaday College
, Amta 711401, Howrah, West Bengal, India
b)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: soovoojeet@gmail.com
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Anupam Khatua
;
Anupam Khatua
c)
3
Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Engineering Science and Technology
, Shibpur, Howrah 711103, India
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a)
Electronic mail: manotosh09@gmail.com
b)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: soovoojeet@gmail.com
c)
Electronic mail: akhatua06@gmail.com
d)
Electronic mail: tkar1117@gmail.com
Chaos 30, 113119 (2020)
Article history
Received:
May 27 2020
Accepted:
October 20 2020
Citation
Manotosh Mandal, Soovoojeet Jana, Anupam Khatua, T. K. Kar; Modeling and control of COVID-19: A short-term forecasting in the context of India. Chaos 1 November 2020; 30 (11): 113119. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0015330
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