An abrupt climatic transition could be triggered by a single extreme event, and an -stable non-Gaussian Lévy noise is regarded as a type of noise to generate such extreme events. In contrast with the classic Gaussian noise, a comprehensive approach of the most probable transition path for systems under -stable Lévy noise is still lacking. We develop here a probabilistic framework, based on the nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation, to investigate the maximum likelihood climate change for an energy balance system under the influence of greenhouse effect and Lévy fluctuations. We find that a period of the cold climate state can be interrupted by a sharp shift to the warmer one due to larger noise jumps with low frequency. Additionally, the climate change for warming C under an enhanced greenhouse effect generates a steplike growth process. These results provide important insights into the underlying mechanisms of abrupt climate transitions triggered by a Lévy process.
Skip Nav Destination
The maximum likelihood climate change for global warming under the influence of greenhouse effect and Lévy noise
,
,
,
,
,
Article navigation
January 2020
Research Article|
January 21 2020
The maximum likelihood climate change for global warming under the influence of greenhouse effect and Lévy noise
Available to Purchase
Yayun Zheng
;
Yayun Zheng
1
School of Mathematics and Statistics and Center for Mathematical Science, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
, Wuhan 430074, China
2
Wuhan National Laboratory for Optoelectronics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
, Wuhan 430074, China
3
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
, Potsdam 14473, Germany
Search for other works by this author on:
Fang Yang;
Fang Yang
1
School of Mathematics and Statistics and Center for Mathematical Science, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
, Wuhan 430074, China
Search for other works by this author on:
Jinqiao Duan
;
Jinqiao Duan
a)
4
Department of Applied Mathematics, Illinois Institute of Technology
, Chicago, Illinois 60616, USA
Search for other works by this author on:
Xu Sun;
Xu Sun
1
School of Mathematics and Statistics and Center for Mathematical Science, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
, Wuhan 430074, China
Search for other works by this author on:
Ling Fu;
Ling Fu
2
Wuhan National Laboratory for Optoelectronics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
, Wuhan 430074, China
Search for other works by this author on:
Jürgen Kurths
Jürgen Kurths
2
Wuhan National Laboratory for Optoelectronics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
, Wuhan 430074, China
3
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
, Potsdam 14473, Germany
5
Department of Physics, Humboldt University
, Berlin 12489, Germany
Search for other works by this author on:
Yayun Zheng
1,2,3
Fang Yang
1
Jinqiao Duan
4,a)
Xu Sun
1
Ling Fu
2
Jürgen Kurths
2,3,5
1
School of Mathematics and Statistics and Center for Mathematical Science, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
, Wuhan 430074, China
2
Wuhan National Laboratory for Optoelectronics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
, Wuhan 430074, China
3
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
, Potsdam 14473, Germany
4
Department of Applied Mathematics, Illinois Institute of Technology
, Chicago, Illinois 60616, USA
5
Department of Physics, Humboldt University
, Berlin 12489, Germany
a)
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: [email protected]
Chaos 30, 013132 (2020)
Article history
Received:
September 27 2019
Accepted:
December 17 2019
Citation
Yayun Zheng, Fang Yang, Jinqiao Duan, Xu Sun, Ling Fu, Jürgen Kurths; The maximum likelihood climate change for global warming under the influence of greenhouse effect and Lévy noise. Chaos 1 January 2020; 30 (1): 013132. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5129003
Download citation file:
Pay-Per-View Access
$40.00
Sign In
You could not be signed in. Please check your credentials and make sure you have an active account and try again.
Citing articles via
Reservoir computing with the minimum description length principle
Antony Mizzi, Michael Small, et al.
Recent achievements in nonlinear dynamics, synchronization, and networks
Dibakar Ghosh, Norbert Marwan, et al.
Data-driven nonlinear model reduction to spectral submanifolds via oblique projection
Leonardo Bettini, Bálint Kaszás, et al.
Related Content
How close are time series to power tail Lévy diffusions?
Chaos (July 2017)
Most probable dynamics of stochastic dynamical systems with exponentially light jump fluctuations
Chaos (June 2020)
Power Levy motion. I. Diffusion
Chaos (March 2025)
Pre-asymptotic analysis of Lévy flights
Chaos (July 2024)