An abrupt climatic transition could be triggered by a single extreme event, and an -stable non-Gaussian Lévy noise is regarded as a type of noise to generate such extreme events. In contrast with the classic Gaussian noise, a comprehensive approach of the most probable transition path for systems under -stable Lévy noise is still lacking. We develop here a probabilistic framework, based on the nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation, to investigate the maximum likelihood climate change for an energy balance system under the influence of greenhouse effect and Lévy fluctuations. We find that a period of the cold climate state can be interrupted by a sharp shift to the warmer one due to larger noise jumps with low frequency. Additionally, the climate change for warming C under an enhanced greenhouse effect generates a steplike growth process. These results provide important insights into the underlying mechanisms of abrupt climate transitions triggered by a Lévy process.
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The maximum likelihood climate change for global warming under the influence of greenhouse effect and Lévy noise
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January 2020
Research Article|
January 21 2020
The maximum likelihood climate change for global warming under the influence of greenhouse effect and Lévy noise
Yayun Zheng
;
Yayun Zheng
1
School of Mathematics and Statistics and Center for Mathematical Science, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
, Wuhan 430074, China
2
Wuhan National Laboratory for Optoelectronics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
, Wuhan 430074, China
3
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
, Potsdam 14473, Germany
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Fang Yang;
Fang Yang
1
School of Mathematics and Statistics and Center for Mathematical Science, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
, Wuhan 430074, China
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Jinqiao Duan
;
Jinqiao Duan
a)
4
Department of Applied Mathematics, Illinois Institute of Technology
, Chicago, Illinois 60616, USA
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Xu Sun;
Xu Sun
1
School of Mathematics and Statistics and Center for Mathematical Science, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
, Wuhan 430074, China
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Ling Fu;
Ling Fu
2
Wuhan National Laboratory for Optoelectronics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
, Wuhan 430074, China
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Jürgen Kurths
Jürgen Kurths
2
Wuhan National Laboratory for Optoelectronics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
, Wuhan 430074, China
3
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
, Potsdam 14473, Germany
5
Department of Physics, Humboldt University
, Berlin 12489, Germany
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a)
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: duan@iit.edu
Chaos 30, 013132 (2020)
Article history
Received:
September 27 2019
Accepted:
December 17 2019
Citation
Yayun Zheng, Fang Yang, Jinqiao Duan, Xu Sun, Ling Fu, Jürgen Kurths; The maximum likelihood climate change for global warming under the influence of greenhouse effect and Lévy noise. Chaos 1 January 2020; 30 (1): 013132. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5129003
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