For a wide class of stationary time series, extreme value theory provides limiting distributions for rare events. The theory describes not only the size of extremes but also how often they occur. In practice, it is often observed that extremes cluster in time. Such short-range clustering is also accommodated by extreme value theory via the so-called extremal index. This review provides an introduction to the extremal index by working through a number of its intuitive interpretations. Thus, depending on the context, the extremal index may represent (i) the loss of independently and identically distributed degrees of freedom, (ii) the multiplicity of a compound Poisson point process, and (iii) the inverse mean duration of extreme clusters. More recently, the extremal index has also been used to quantify (iv) recurrences around unstable fixed points in dynamical systems.
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February 2019
Review Article|
February 11 2019
An overview of the extremal index
Nicholas R. Moloney;
Nicholas R. Moloney
1
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Reading
, Reading RG6 6AX, United Kingdom
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Davide Faranda
;
Davide Faranda
c)
2
Laboratoire de Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL, Universite Paris-Saclay
, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
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Yuzuru Sato
Yuzuru Sato
d)
3
RIES/Department of Mathematics, Hokkaido University
, Kita 20 Nishi 10, Kita-ku, Sapporo 001-0020, Japan
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a)
Electronic mail: [email protected]
b)
Also at London Mathematical Laboratory, 8 Margravine Gardens, London, United Kingdom.
c)
Electronic mail: [email protected]
d)
Electronic mail: [email protected]
Chaos 29, 022101 (2019)
Article history
Received:
November 01 2018
Accepted:
January 23 2019
Citation
Nicholas R. Moloney, Davide Faranda, Yuzuru Sato; An overview of the extremal index. Chaos 1 February 2019; 29 (2): 022101. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5079656
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