Increasingly complex nonlinear World-Earth system models are used for describing the dynamics of the biophysical Earth system and the socioeconomic and sociocultural World of human societies and their interactions. Identifying pathways toward a sustainable future in these models for informing policymakers and the wider public, e.g., pathways leading to robust mitigation of dangerous anthropogenic climate change, is a challenging and widely investigated task in the field of climate research and broader Earth system science. This problem is particularly difficult when constraints on avoiding transgressions of planetary boundaries and social foundations need to be taken into account. In this work, we propose to combine recently developed machine learning techniques, namely, deep reinforcement learning (DRL), with classical analysis of trajectories in the World-Earth system. Based on the concept of the agent-environment interface, we develop an agent that is generally able to act and learn in variable manageable environment models of the Earth system. We demonstrate the potential of our framework by applying DRL algorithms to two stylized World-Earth system models. Conceptually, we explore thereby the feasibility of finding novel global governance policies leading into a safe and just operating space constrained by certain planetary and socioeconomic boundaries. The artificially intelligent agent learns that the timing of a specific mix of taxing carbon emissions and subsidies on renewables is of crucial relevance for finding World-Earth system trajectories that are sustainable in the long term.
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December 2019
Research Article|
December 17 2019
Deep reinforcement learning in World-Earth system models to discover sustainable management strategies
Felix M. Strnad
;
Felix M. Strnad
a)
1
FutureLab on Game Theory and Networks of Interacting Agents, Research Department 4: Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
2
Department of Physics, University of Göttingen
, 37077 Göttingen, Germany
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Wolfram Barfuss
;
Wolfram Barfuss
3
FutureLab on Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene, Research Department 1: Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
4
Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences
, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
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Jonathan F. Donges
;
Jonathan F. Donges
3
FutureLab on Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene, Research Department 1: Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
5
Stockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm University
, 104 05 Stockholm, Sweden
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Jobst Heitzig
Jobst Heitzig
1
FutureLab on Game Theory and Networks of Interacting Agents, Research Department 4: Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
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a)
Electronic mail: [email protected]
Note: This paper is part of the Focus Issue, “When Machine Learning Meets Complex Systems: Networks, Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics.”
Chaos 29, 123122 (2019)
Article history
Received:
August 15 2019
Accepted:
November 20 2019
Citation
Felix M. Strnad, Wolfram Barfuss, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig; Deep reinforcement learning in World-Earth system models to discover sustainable management strategies. Chaos 1 December 2019; 29 (12): 123122. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5124673
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