Reconciling the paths of extreme rainfall with those of typhoons remains difficult despite advanced forecasting techniques. We use complex networks defined by a nonlinear synchronization measure termed event synchronization to track extreme rainfall over the Japanese islands. Directed networks objectively record patterns of heavy rain brought by frontal storms and typhoons but mask out contributions of local convective storms. We propose a radial rank method to show that paths of extreme rainfall in the typhoon season (August-November, ASON) follow the overall southwest-northeast motion of typhoons and mean rainfall gradient of Japan. The associated eye-of-the-typhoon tracks deviate notably and may thus distort estimates of heavy typhoon rainfall. We mainly found that the lower spread of rainfall tracks in ASON may enable better hindcasting than for westerly-fed frontal storms in June and July.
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July 2018
Research Article|
July 06 2018
Complex networks for tracking extreme rainfall during typhoons
U. Ozturk
;
U. Ozturk
a)
1
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research – PIK
, Potsdam D-14476, Germany
2
Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam
, Potsdam D-14473, Germany
a)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: ugur.oeztuerk@uni-potsdam.de
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N. Marwan
;
N. Marwan
1
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research – PIK
, Potsdam D-14476, Germany
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O. Korup;
O. Korup
2
Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam
, Potsdam D-14473, Germany
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H. Saito;
H. Saito
3
College of Economics, Kanto Gakuin University
, Yokohama 236-8501, Japan
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A. Agarwal
;
A. Agarwal
1
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research – PIK
, Potsdam D-14476, Germany
2
Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam
, Potsdam D-14473, Germany
4
Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, German Research Centre for Geosciences – GFZ
, Potsdam D-14476, Germany
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M. J. Grossman;
M. J. Grossman
5
Department of Geography, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville
, Edwardsville, Illinois 62026, USA
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M. Zaiki;
M. Zaiki
6
Department of Economics and Management, Seikei University
, Tokyo 180-8633, Japan
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J. Kurths
J. Kurths
1
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research – PIK
, Potsdam D-14476, Germany
7
Department of Physics, Humboldt University
, Berlin D-12489, Germany
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a)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: ugur.oeztuerk@uni-potsdam.de
Chaos 28, 075301 (2018)
Article history
Received:
September 13 2017
Accepted:
November 28 2017
Citation
U. Ozturk, N. Marwan, O. Korup, H. Saito, A. Agarwal, M. J. Grossman, M. Zaiki, J. Kurths; Complex networks for tracking extreme rainfall during typhoons. Chaos 1 July 2018; 28 (7): 075301. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5004480
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