By developing a continuous-time heterogeneous agent financial market model of multi-assets traded by fundamental and momentum investors, we provide a potential mechanism for generating time-varying dominance between fundamental and non-fundamental in financial markets. We show that investment constraints lead to the coexistence of a locally stable fundamental steady state and a locally stable limit cycle around the fundamental, characterized by a Bautin bifurcation. This provides a mechanism for market prices to switch stochastically between the two persistent but very different market states, leading to the coexistence and time-varying dominance of seemingly controversial efficient market and price momentum over different time periods. The model also generates other financial market stylized facts, such as spillover effects in both momentum and volatility, market booms, crashes, and correlation reduction due to cross-sectional momentum trading. Empirical evidence based on the U.S. market supports the main findings. The mechanism developed in this paper can be used to characterize time-varying economic dominance in economics and finance in general.
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Time-varying economic dominance in financial markets: A bistable dynamics approach
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Research Article|
May 16 2018
Time-varying economic dominance in financial markets: A bistable dynamics approach
Special Collection:
Nonlinear Economic Dynamics
Xue-Zhong He
;
1
UTS Business School, University of Technology Sydney
, PO Box 123, Broadway, NSW 2007, Australia
c)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: wangchuncheng@hit.edu.cn
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Kai Li;
Kai Li
b)
1
UTS Business School, University of Technology Sydney
, PO Box 123, Broadway, NSW 2007, Australia
2
Institute of Financial Studies, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
, Chendu, China
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Chuncheng Wang
Chuncheng Wang
c)
3
Department of Mathematics, Harbin Institute of Technology
, Harbin, China
c)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: wangchuncheng@hit.edu.cn
Search for other works by this author on:
c)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: wangchuncheng@hit.edu.cn
Chaos 28, 055903 (2018)
Article history
Received:
January 02 2018
Accepted:
March 27 2018
Citation
Xue-Zhong He, Kai Li, Chuncheng Wang; Time-varying economic dominance in financial markets: A bistable dynamics approach. Chaos 1 May 2018; 28 (5): 055903. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5021141
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