We extend the model of Dieci and Westerhoff [J. Evol. Econ. 22(2), 303–329 (2012)], where the authors analyse a speculative housing market populated by heterogeneous interacting agents described by a two dimensional nonlinear discrete time dynamical system. They show the emergence of complicated dynamics through the occurrence of bifurcations for particular parameter combinations. We enlarge their model in several ways. On one hand, we introduce time lag in the supply side and we consider two new scenarios characterised by agents' expectations formation. First, naive expectations instead of perfect foresight are considered, while in the second scenario, we study a mix between the model of Dieci and Westerhoff [J. Evol. Econ. 22(2), 303–329 (2012)] and the one we propose. As a consequence, we, analytically and numerically, explain the appearance of instability in the housing market providing conditions on the parameters that lead to a bifurcation. On the other hand, thanks to further numerical simulations, we conduct a global analysis providing the structure of the basin of attractions of the map showing coexistence of attractors.
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Research Article|
May 14 2018
Local and global analysis of a speculative housing market with production lag
Special Collection:
Nonlinear Economic Dynamics
Giovanni Campisi
;
Giovanni Campisi
a)
1
Department of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Sciences, Polytechnic University of Marche
, Ancona 60131, Italy
a)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: g.campisi@univpm.it
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Ahmad K. Naimzada;
Ahmad K. Naimzada
b)
2
Department of Statistics, University of Milano-Bicocca
, Milano 20126, Italy
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Fabio Tramontana
Fabio Tramontana
c)
3
Department of Mathematical Disciplines, Mathematical Finance and Econometrics, Catholic University of Milan
, Milano 20123, Italy
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a)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: g.campisi@univpm.it
b)
E-mail: ahmad.naimzada@unimib.it
c)
E-mail: fabio.tramontana@unicatt.it
Chaos 28, 055901 (2018)
Article history
Received:
January 30 2018
Accepted:
March 26 2018
Citation
Giovanni Campisi, Ahmad K. Naimzada, Fabio Tramontana; Local and global analysis of a speculative housing market with production lag. Chaos 1 May 2018; 28 (5): 055901. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5024139
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