Extreme events capture the attention and imagination of the general public. Extreme events, especially meteorological and climatological extremes, cause significant economic damages and lead to a significant number of casualties each year. Thus, the prediction of extremes is of obvious importance. Here, I will survey the predictive skill and the predictability of extremes using dynamic-stochastic models. These dynamic-stochastic models combine deterministic nonlinear dynamics with a stochastic component, which consists potentially of both additive and multiplicative noise components. In these models, extremes are created by either the nonlinear dynamics, multiplicative noise, or additive heavy-tailed noises. These models naturally capture the observed clustering of extremes and can be used for the prediction of extremes.
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January 2017
Review Article|
January 06 2017
Extremes in dynamic-stochastic systems
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Christian L. E. Franzke
Christian L. E. Franzke
a)
Meteorological Institute and Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability,
University of Hamburg
, Hamburg, Germany
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Christian L. E. Franzke
a)
Meteorological Institute and Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability,
University of Hamburg
, Hamburg, Germany
Chaos 27, 012101 (2017)
Article history
Received:
November 07 2016
Accepted:
December 19 2016
Citation
Christian L. E. Franzke; Extremes in dynamic-stochastic systems. Chaos 1 January 2017; 27 (1): 012101. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4973541
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