Despite efforts made over the past two decades, Pakistan continues to face electricity crises. The heavy reliance on fossil fuels, which make up 60% of the country’s energy mix, has raised concerns about energy security and environmental degradation due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Developing effective electricity generation scenarios has been challenging for policymakers and researchers, despite the steady increase in electricity demand. The LEAP software was used in this study to forecast the country’s power demand, and four supply-side scenarios were constructed and examined for the years 2018 through 2040. These scenarios include a baseline scenario, a renewable energy scenario, a more renewable energy scenario, and a near-zero emission scenario, focusing on electricity generation and carbon emissions. The study’s findings, projecting into 2040, indicate that the renewable energy scenarios are environmentally sustainable, with lower GHG emissions compared to the baseline scenario. According to the findings of this study, it is projected that around 615 TWh (terawatt-hours) of renewable energy and nuclear energy will be necessary by the year 2040. The anticipated contributions include 393 TWh from hydroelectric energy, 57 TWh from wind energy, 41 TWh from solar energy, and 62 TWh from other renewable sources. The surge in renewable energy is forecasted to bring near-zero CO2 emissions by 2040, a pivotal step toward a sustainable energy future. A projected energy generation of 615 TWh is expected, which adequately meets the country’s energy demand. Transition to renewable energy is critical for addressing Pakistan’s increasing electricity demands, emphasizing both energy security and environmental sustainability.

Energy, a fundamental human necessity, has a significant impact on a country’s economic development.1 To ensure sustainable economic growth, it is crucial to provide excellent quality of life while preserving natural resources.2 The global energy demand has surged exponentially due to population growth, industrialization, and globalization. The level of economic growth in a country is closely linked to its per capita energy consumption. For instance, countries such as the USA, the United Arab Emirates, and the UK have high per capita energy consumption and strong economic growth.3 As illustrated in Fig. 1, Pakistan lags in economic growth compared to other countries due to its relatively lower per capita energy consumption. In addition, until 2014, Pakistan relied heavily on fossil fuels for power production, with limited utilization of renewables, as indicated in Fig. 2.

FIG. 1.

Comparison of per capita electricity consumption.3 

FIG. 1.

Comparison of per capita electricity consumption.3 

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FIG. 2.

Pakistan power generation mix.4 

FIG. 2.

Pakistan power generation mix.4 

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Traditionally, electricity production takes place in remote regions of a country, and transmission lines are used to transport it to populated areas. From there, distribution lines are used to deliver the obtained electricity to consumers. However, there is currently a growing demand for electrical energy to meet industrial requirements. Unfortunately, the production of power using fossil fuels in the industrial and transportation sectors5 is becoming economically impractical due to escalating fuel prices.6 Moreover, fossil fuels are the primary culprits behind greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including CO2, SO2, and NO2.7,8 These GHGs contribute to significant environmental issues, including rising pollution and global warming.9,10 The US Environmental Protection Agency claims that human activities have caused a 42% increase in GHG emissions between 1990 and 2012. Developing nations, driven by population and economic growth, have seen a steady rise in GHG emissions. Without coordinated measures to reduce GHG emissions, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations says that the average world temperature will rise by 4–5 °C during the next century.11 To mitigate the devastating effects of global warming, developing nations must achieve carbon neutrality by 2040.12 The generation of energy from renewable sources has emerged as the predominant global policy approach to ensure long-term energy security.13,14 A lot of developing nations have also passed laws to promote the utilization of renewable energy resources to improve energy security and sustainability.15 Notably, Pakistan is predicted to be the sixth country to experience the greatest effects of climate change, but it is actively pursuing sustainable energy policies.16 It is worth highlighting that Pakistan possesses significant potential for developing new technologies, harnessing energy from renewable sources, and fostering research opportunities.17 

Pakistan’s energy crisis originates from energy shortages that can be traced back to a 1994 energy policy. This policy prioritized the development of oil-based thermal power plants through incentives instead of promoting renewable energy sources.18 Currently, Pakistan is experiencing an increasingly severe energy crisis due to rising energy demands caused by population growth, industrialization, inadequate infrastructure, improved living standards, and the absence of modern energy policies.13 The country heavily relies on imported oil (35.3%) and fossil fuels for its energy generation.19 In 2010, the energy demand–supply gap was estimated to be 31.6 TWh, leading to over half a million job losses in the industrial sector and a 2.5% decline in GDP.20 The electricity shortages have forced the shutdown of small-scale industries, negatively affecting workers nationwide. Furthermore, the energy scarcity resulted in a 3% reduction in Pakistan’s overall GDP in 2013. During the period from 2004 to 2008, the energy demand enlarged by 10%, accompanied by an economic growth of 6.49%, while energy generation remained nearly stagnant.21 Hydroelectric power plants, which used to contribute 59% of total electricity generation in the 1980s, saw a decline to 33% by 2015.22 

For energy security and sustainability, many developing nations seek renewable energy for environmental issues except for producing energy supplies at economical prices.23 For tackling climatic changes, transition toward renewable energy sources is the best solution.24 In promoting sustainable energy development to address the fuel shortage and climatic changes, the generation of energy from sustainable energy resources is dominating as a major element of energy supply strategies globally.25,26 In addition, among the susceptible countries to climatic change, Pakistan ranked seventh due to the worst climate conditions. GOP is enthusiastic to commence execution of suitably advanced climate change policy.27 Pakistan is honored with tremendous potential for renewable energy generation due to its significant solar, wind, biomass, and hydropower resources.17,28 Renewable energy options can fulfill Pakistan’s electricity requirements without emitting GHGs and affecting the atmosphere.29 Pakistan’s high reliance on fossil fuels can be avoided by financing renewable energy resources.

A sizable amount of literature is available on the future development of Pakistan’s energy industry, but the majority of the published studies focus on specific sources, such as wind, biomass, solar, and hydroelectricity.27,30–34 Factually, energy modeling studies in Pakistan that may aid in the creation of policies in an integrated manner were uncommon.35 With useful recommendations in the total energy mix, Farooqui36 studied the potential of various renewable energy sources, such as biomass, solar, wind, and hydroelectricity for Pakistan. Mirza et al.37 suggested an approach to identify solutions for Pakistan that connected the use of renewable energy with the precise location. For Pakistan’s renewable energy development policy, Peidong et al.38 determined the result that includes laws, regulations, commercial enticement, energy-based research and development, and government energy modeling. The affiliation between macroeconomic issues and renewable energy is given in Ref. 39 and a summary of renewable energy’s potential for long-term energy security has been presented in Ref. 40 for Pakistan. For co-integration in the context of Pakistan, the use of an auto-regressive distributed lag model connection between renewable energy use and economic growth has been addressed in Ref. 41. Pakistan’s evaluation of the reanalysis and analysis results of solar radiation has been presented in Ref. 42. Using reanalysis and analysis of datasets with systematic and seasonal variations, Tahir et al.30 reviewed correcting the solar radiation. The usage of wind energy in Pakistan has been outlined in terms of its past, present, and future.43 The potential for producing wind energy at various locations in southeast Pakistan has been studied in Ref. 44. In addition, the authors suggested many strategies to obtain energy supply in the future by examining renewable energy policies.45 However, due to limited resources for electricity modeling, the majority of previous studies relied on mathematical data to establish prediction approaches.16 At present, Pakistan’s National Transmission & Despatch Company (NTDC) has developed long-term energy prediction techniques. Unfortunately, NTDC’s forecasting approaches have not accurately predicted the energy demand, leading to unsuccessful estimations for reducing the energy crisis.46 

In highly urbanized areas, especially in cities, using fossil fuels for transportation and electrical production has been realized to be unfavorable for the atmosphere and for humans. Due to unfavorable fossil fuel effects on human health, more cities and countries throughout the world switch to 100% renewable energy (RE) supply every year to fix fossil fuel effects.14 Cities that have pledged to use only renewable energy sources include Barcelona, Frankfurt, Geneva, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and Chicago.47 Paraguay, Norway, and Denmark are the countries that have committed to 100% renewable electricity generation.48 However, only Denmark has made it a firm policy to supply all final energy demands, including those for power, heating/cooling, and transportation, entirely through renewable energy sources.49 The European Commission (EC) has provided a strategic long-term strategy for Europe to take the lead in the transition toward a climate-neutral economy, which outlines feasible pathways by 2050.50 Reference 51 proposed different pathways toward renewable energy systems by realizing that decarbonization of the current energy system is necessary and is being increasingly recognized. One such research has been described in Ref. 52, highlighting an energy transition to 100% renewable sources by mid-century.

The LEAP software offers a user-friendly solution for estimating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by inputting data obtained from government energy departments. One of the key benefits of LEAP is its capability to provide users with insights into current and future energy demand data.53 The software is widely used for future energy planning, energy management growth, analyzing the impact of renewable energy models, and evaluating various economic sectors within a specific country.54 Energy models have also been employed to predict the effects of upcoming energy policies on existing power systems and to facilitate long-term energy demand projections required for grid and network expansion. These energy modeling tools serve as a valuable resource for industries and governments, guiding them toward environmentally sustainable and cost-effective electricity supply systems. Consequently, scenario-based studies have been conducted to explore renewable energy potential in meeting the energy demand of developing nations for several decades.55,56

The objective of this research is to establish a scenario for Pakistan’s energy system that relies entirely on renewable sources for electricity generation. This study utilizes integrated energy planning techniques and employs the LEAP software to compare different scenarios, including those that incorporate non-renewable energy sources for electricity generation. Given Pakistan’s issues with climate change and its energy crises, the research that focuses on a 100% renewable electricity generation scenario is of utmost importance. Although there may be other studies of a similar nature in the worldwide literature, this study focuses on environmental security while particularly addressing the opportunities and challenges related to Pakistan’s adoption of 100% renewable energy.

The use of actual data and the inclusion of Pakistan’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) commitments are what distinguish this study from others. The study avoids relying on purely theoretical assumptions by using data from the Pakistan Energy Year Book to ensure that the analysis and findings are anchored in the specific context of Pakistan’s energy environment.

This research offers useful insights and suggestions that can support Pakistan’s sustainable development goals and assist target its energy and environmental concerns by concentrating on the potential for 100% renewable electricity generation within the country.

In this paper, Sec. II analyzes Pakistan’s status about supply and demand for energy. It looks at the country’s current electricity supply and demand, taking into account things such as population expansion, economic expansion, and energy consumption trends. Section III provides the concept of sector coupling with its various dimensions and implications. Sector coupling is the linking and coordination of different energy sectors to produce a more integrated and effective energy system. Section IV emphasizes the methodology used in this research, specifically the use of the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model. The main assumptions of the LEAP model are discussed in this section, along with the model’s limitations and the development of various scenarios. In Sec. V of this paper, the results and discussions are presented. This section discusses various aspects, including projected electricity demand, which entails estimating future electricity needs based on various factors, including population growth, economic indicators, and energy consumption trends. In addition, it explores the potential for renewable energy sources and their contribution to the entire energy mix while looking at how electricity is generated under various scenarios. This section also covers the environmental advantages and effects of transitioning to an energy system based on renewable resources. Section VI of this paper highlights the major contributions of this research. Finally, this paper is concluded in Sec. VII by summarizing the main conclusions, implications, and suggestions derived from the analysis. It emphasizes the significance of implementing renewable energy sources for a sustainable and secure energy future in Pakistan, highlighting the possible advantages in terms of energy efficiency, decarbonization, and economic prospects.

Overall, this study offers a comprehensive analysis of Pakistan’s electrical demand and supply conditions, evaluating the potential of renewable energy sources using the LEAP model and scenario development. It provides information on Pakistan’s potential energy landscape and highlights the significance of switching to renewable energy-based systems to achieve sustainability and energy security.

Figure 4 illustrates the upward trajectory of Pakistan’s electricity demand, which can be attributed to factors such as population growth, rapid urbanization, expansion of the industrial sector, and the adoption of modern living standards.57 The major sectors consuming electricity in Pakistan include residential, commercial, agricultural, and industrial sectors.58 At present, the country heavily relies on fossil fuel-based thermal power plants, such as oil, gas, and imported coal. This heavy reliance on non-renewable energy has not only negatively impacted the country’s economy but has also exacerbated the energy crisis it faces.59 Pakistan has been unable to fully utilize its renewable energy resources, including hydroelectric, solar, and wind power, due to several obstacles, including technical, economic, and political considerations. A pictorial representation of Pakistan’s electric power sector is shown in Fig. 3.

FIG. 3.

Pakistan’s electric power sector pictorial view.60 

FIG. 3.

Pakistan’s electric power sector pictorial view.60 

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Pakistan has a total population of 208 × 106 people, with 64% living in rural areas and 36% population living in urban areas as per Pakistan 2018 census data.61 The estimated total number of homes in Pakistan is 35.20 × 106, with an average household size of six people.21 While population expansion and adoption of modern/improved living standards can be ascribed to the spike in electricity demand, the speed of electricity supply development has lagged behind the nation’s rate of population growth.

Table I provides an overview of electricity consumption in different sectors in the year 2018. The domestic sector accounted for 35 216 GWh (49%), followed by the industrial sector with 19 327 GWh (28%), the commercial sector with 5312 GWh (8%), the agricultural sector with 5477 GWh (9%), and other sectors with 5276 GWh (7%). The total electricity consumption across all sectors has experienced a significant yearly growth rate of 4.55%.62 Pakistan has abundant renewable energy resources that might greatly improve its total energy mix for generating power. As of 2018, the nation’s energy mix for generating electricity of 120.98 TWh primarily relies on gas, oil, and coal, with smaller contributions from hydropower, nuclear energy, and other renewable sources.63 Furthermore, Pakistan’s electricity consumption per person stands at 453 kWh, and during the early 21st century, the domestic sector witnessed a growth rate of 5.95% in electricity consumption.64  Figure 4 presents Pakistan’s electricity demand and supply trends over seven years, spanning from 2012 to 2018. Inadequate generation capacity and transmission and distribution losses have left ∼50 × 106 Pakistanis without access to electricity.65 Implementing an integrated framework for electricity generation and infrastructure development is crucial to addressing this electricity shortfall and bolstering the country’s economy.

TABLE I.

Pakistan’s electricity consumption pattern from 2017 to 2018.62 

Sector (%)Energy (GWh)Percentage
Other government 19.7 0.3 
Street light 232 0.3 
Bulk supplies 3958 
Commercial 5312 
Agriculture 5476 
Industry 19 327 28 
Domestic 35 216 49 
Grand total 69 718 
Sector (%)Energy (GWh)Percentage
Other government 19.7 0.3 
Street light 232 0.3 
Bulk supplies 3958 
Commercial 5312 
Agriculture 5476 
Industry 19 327 28 
Domestic 35 216 49 
Grand total 69 718 
FIG. 4.

Pakistan’s electricity demand–supply situation.57 

FIG. 4.

Pakistan’s electricity demand–supply situation.57 

Close modal

Sector coupling is critical to the progress of renewable energy systems. It entails integrating and coordinating several energy sectors, such as electricity, heating, cooling, transportation, and industry, to maximize the overall efficiency and flexibility of the energy system. The primary goal of sector coupling is to successfully exploit renewable energy sources while lowering reliance on fossil fuels. By connecting and aligning multiple sectors, they can mutually benefit from one other’s resources and capacities.66 Sector coupling allows excess energy from one sector to be used to meet the energy needs of other sectors during periods of low renewable energy supply. Surplus electricity generated from renewable sources, for example, might be utilized to power electric vehicles or create heat for buildings, reducing dependency on conventional fuels. This integration and sharing of energy supplies improves the overall resilience and reliability of the system.67 We can improve energy efficiency, decarbonization, and economic prospects by using sector coupling techniques in conjunction with renewable energy technologies. It provides opportunities to improve energy efficiency, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and improve the overall sustainability and security of our energy future. Overall, sector coupling is critical for realizing the full potential of renewable energy systems by integrating and utilizing many sectors, resulting in a more sustainable, efficient, and secure energy landscape as shown in Fig. 5.68 

FIG. 5.

Sector coupling.69 

Sector coupling is the integration and coordination of several energy sectors, such as electricity, heating and cooling, transportation, and industry, to create a more efficient and sustainable energy system.67 There are numerous opportunities for sector coupling in Pakistan, particularly with a focus on renewable energy. Here are some potential areas for sector coupling in Pakistan:

Renewable energy integration: Pakistan has tremendous renewable energy generation potential, particularly in solar and wind power. To fulfill the country’s expanding energy demand, sector coupling could entail incorporating renewable energy sources into the power system. This can include combining renewable energy with energy storage technologies, such as batteries or pumped storage hydropower, to ensure a reliable and steady power supply.

Renewable heat and cooling: Sector coupling can also include using renewable energy sources for heating and cooling, such as solar thermal or geothermal energy. This can be accomplished by incorporating solar thermal systems into buildings, industrial processes, and district heating systems, hence lowering dependency on fossil fuels in these applications.

Transportation electrification: Promoting electric vehicles (EVs) and assisting in the development of charging infrastructure can be an important part of sector coupling. By integrating renewable energy sources into the power grid and connecting them to the transportation sector, Pakistan can reduce its dependency on fossil fuel-based transportation and achieve cleaner, more sustainable mobility.

Green hydrogen production: Green hydrogen can be produced through the electrolysis of water utilizing renewable energy sources. Green hydrogen can be used as a versatile energy carrier in industries such as transportation, manufacturing, and power generation, lowering carbon emissions and supporting decarbonization.

Power-to-X technologies: Power-to-X technologies involve transforming excess renewable electricity into other types of energy, such as hydrogen, synthetic fuels, or heat, which can then be used in a variety of industries. This can involve the production of synthetic fuels for transportation or the use of excess renewable energy for industrial activities, which helps balance the grid and maximize the use of renewable energy resources.70 

It is vital to highlight that sector coupling requires supportive policies, laws, and infrastructure development. This includes encouraging renewable energy investments, increasing grid flexibility and interconnection, offering incentives for renewable energy integration, and encouraging collaboration across various sectors and stakeholders. Pakistan can improve its energy security, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and shift to a more sustainable and resilient energy system by embracing sector coupling and focusing on renewable energy.

The overall structure and procedures for connecting various sectors are shown in Fig. 5. One tactic is to connect an energy source to a specific service, such as heating or transportation. A second approach would involve creating new connections between energy sources to enable the indirect electrification of activities that cannot be directly electrified, such industrial processes. As an illustration, electricity can be utilized to electrify the transportation and heating industries and to produce a synthetic fuel that is then used to give a further energy service.69 Through a variety of sector coupling technologies, including heat pumps and electric resistance boilers, electricity from renewable energy sources can power electric vehicles (EVs) in place of fossil fuel-based electricity or transportation fuels based on petroleum. Different applications can be used at different times to deliver a variety of energy services. Electricity from fossil sources is not allowed to be utilized for sector coupling at any point in the value chain for the system to be entirely based on sustainable energy sources. The demand for renewable energy would rise with the expansion of sector-coupled technology applications. The dependability of system operation can be maintained with the use of digitalized intelligent and smart energy management systems boosting flexibility; in turn, this would promote renewable power penetration in the energy mix.71 

For a given country, energy generation planning plays a significant role in helping to meet future power generation requirements and offers insight into long-term energy approaches. To reinforce the energy planning process, a variety of energy scenarios have been studied and developed. To match energy supply and demand, each scenario is assigned a specific rationality, such as energy policy analysis or climatic consequences. The best energy management tools to broaden electricity generation and predict energy requirements are LEAP, MARKAL, EnergyPLAN, and TIMES.72 Emodi conducted scenario-based research using the LEAP model to analyze future energy production, GHG emissions, and supply in Nigeria from 2010 to 2040.73 Using the LEAP model, Azam investigated energy generation and emission forecasts for road transport in Malaysia from 2012 to 2040, including estimates of CO2, CO, NOx, SOx, and volatile organic matter emissions.74 Pervaiz developed three scenarios projecting an energy demand of 295 TWh by the end of the study period to address future challenges in Pakistan’s energy planning using the LEAP model from 2011 to 2030.75 Usama et al. predicted an energy demand of 312 TWh for the year 2030 based on their LEAP assumptions and described the long-range plan for Pakistan’s electricity supply and demand using the LEAP model from 2000 to 2030.76 Shahid et al. proposed a sustainable energy future for Pakistan, estimating an energy demand of 623 TWh for 2040 using the LEAP model for the period 2016–2040.77 Furthermore, a long-term power generation plan was formulated78 between 2015 and 2055, projecting an energy demand of 2374 TWh by the end of the study period in Pakistan.

For the forecast of renewable energy resources, a LEAP demand tree is shown in Fig. 6. There are numerous factors related to and affecting energy demand, illustrated in Table II. In this work, the LEAP model is used for the investigation of GHG emissions, environmental impact, energy demand, and energy generation. In this instance, the advantages of using the LEAP software are an easily manageable time frame, fewer initial data requirements, and planning-oriented, user-friendly, and numerous energy forecasting methodologies. The LEAP model predicts energy consumption, demand, and environmental consequences for the energy zone and makes a comparison between the energy demand and consumption for each scenario. As such, the LEAP model is appropriate for Pakistan’s energy modeling framework as there is a low initial data requirement and built-in technology.78 This study examines Pakistan’s electricity supply system for the period between 2018 and 2040 using LEAP energy modeling, which predicts the country’s energy demand. In addition, this work investigates four supply scenarios for Pakistan.

FIG. 6.

Energy transition LEAP tree for Pakistan.

FIG. 6.

Energy transition LEAP tree for Pakistan.

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TABLE II.

Factors related to and affecting energy demand.71 

Exogenous factorsEndogenous factors
Population growth Energy costs 
Economic development Energy-saving measures 
Urbanization Policies and regulations of the government 
Weather and climate conditions Preferences for mode of transportation 
Technological progress Habits for conserving energy 
Exogenous factorsEndogenous factors
Population growth Energy costs 
Economic development Energy-saving measures 
Urbanization Policies and regulations of the government 
Weather and climate conditions Preferences for mode of transportation 
Technological progress Habits for conserving energy 

The proposed study activity focuses on building a renewable energy pathway for Pakistan, with a target date of 2040. This timeline was set with the intention of allowing policymakers and stakeholders to conceive and implement the essential measures for switching to renewable energy. Furthermore, from a global perspective, aligning the renewable energy pathway with the year 2040 is important. It ensures that Pakistan’s actions are in line with international requirements, such as the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These commitments aim to reduce carbon emissions, combat climate change, and promote global sustainable development. The energy intensity for each sector was calculated using the National Transmission & Despatch Company (NTDC) and Energy Year Book 2018 reports. Table III illustrates the energy intensity values for different sectors. These energy intensity values provide insight into the rate at which energy consumption in each sector changes over time, indicating the need for energy efficiency measures and the potential for reducing energy intensity to ensure sustainable and efficient energy utilization.

TABLE III.

Growth rates of various sectors’ energy intensity.79 

SectorGrowth rate (%)
Domestic 1.87 
Industrial 3.04 
Agriculture 3.17 
Commercial 4.21 
Others 1.62 
SectorGrowth rate (%)
Domestic 1.87 
Industrial 3.04 
Agriculture 3.17 
Commercial 4.21 
Others 1.62 

This research utilizes the LEAP software to develop energy modeling scenarios for Pakistan, specifically focusing on renewable energy sources to reduce GHG emissions. LEAP is a valuable tool for forecasting Pakistan’s future energy demands, assessing different energy generation techniques and structures, and evaluating GHG emissions for each scenario. The software also considers factors such as energy generation capacity requirements and cost constraints.

Four scenarios are presented in this study, with the base year set as 2018 and the end year as 2040. The baseline year (2018) serves as a reference point to analyze long-term electricity supply and demand and estimate GHG emissions associated with the combustion of various fossil fuels. The findings from this analysis aim to inform policymakers about the benefits of renewable resources and emphasize the importance of incorporating a higher share of renewable electricity generation in Pakistan.

The LEAP software categorizes electricity generation into different sources, including nuclear energy, wind energy, thermal-based coal power plants, solar energy, thermal-based gas power plants, hydroelectric energy, thermal high-speed diesel, thermal furnace oil, and biomass energy. Table IV provides an overview of the main parameters used in LEAP for Pakistan’s electricity system.

TABLE IV.

LEAP parameters.79 

Power plantCapacity (MW)Generation (GWh)Efficiency (%)Maximum availability (%)Merit orderYear
Oil 4166 24 159 28.7 88 30 
Nuclear 1345 8800 34.7 75 30 
Coal 2690 11 766 33 70 30 
Natural gas 13 929 43 656 46 70 30 
Hydroelectric 8689 28 562 90 85 60 
Biomass 306 1039 35 80 25 
Wind 985 2118 100 35 20 
Solar 400 664 100 18 25 
Total 32 543 120 764.00 ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ 
Power plantCapacity (MW)Generation (GWh)Efficiency (%)Maximum availability (%)Merit orderYear
Oil 4166 24 159 28.7 88 30 
Nuclear 1345 8800 34.7 75 30 
Coal 2690 11 766 33 70 30 
Natural gas 13 929 43 656 46 70 30 
Hydroelectric 8689 28 562 90 85 60 
Biomass 306 1039 35 80 25 
Wind 985 2118 100 35 20 
Solar 400 664 100 18 25 
Total 32 543 120 764.00 ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ 

It is important to remember that the LEAP model makes performance assumptions about current technologies, including nuclear, hydroelectric, gas turbine, wind, and oil-based ones. However, some renewable energy sources, such as biomass, solar, and geothermal technologies, might not yet be established in the nation or have not yet been fully utilized.

The LEAP software incorporates key assumptions to support energy modeling and planning. These assumptions contribute to the feasibility of the model but can also increase the complexity during its development. The software includes various modules that encompass different aspects, such as key assumptions, effects, demand, transformation, per capita wages, per capita income growth rate, total GDP of Pakistan, GNP with growth rates, total number of households, average household size, industrial GDP, commercial GDP, agricultural GDP, and electricity consumption growth rate.

The main presumptions made by the LEAP model are summarized in Table V. These assumptions include population (208 × 106), GDP (278 × 109 US$ with a growth rate of 4.7% in the fiscal year 2018), per capita income denoted as PKR, and per capita income with a growth rate of 6.5 percent between 2017 and 2018. In addition, a total of 35.21 × 106 households, with an average household size of six people, were reported in Pakistan in 2018. The country’s GNP is expanding at a pace of 5.41 percent, while the industrial, commercial, and agricultural GDPs are all growing at rates of 5.8 percent, 5.65 percent, and 3.8 percent, respectively. In the fiscal year 2018, there were 26.6 × 106 power customers in Pakistan.80 The LEAP model incorporates a planning reserve margin projected to be 15%. The country’s population growth rate from 1998 to 2018 was 2.41%. Transmission and distribution losses in Pakistan were typically 19.82%, and according to the NTDC energy forecast report, these losses are expected to decrease to 11% by the year 2032.79 The IPCC provides assumptions for emission factors related to GHG emissions.38 In cases where data are incomplete or unavailable, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) relies on assumed emission factors for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Assumed factors serve as a temporary solution until more accurate and specific data can be obtained. These assumptions are utilized to estimate emissions and fill gaps in the absence of precise information, providing a basis for analysis until more reliable data become accessible.38 

TABLE V.

LEAP assumptions.80 

Key assumptionsInput parametersGrowth rate (%)
Population 208 × 106 
GDP 278 Billion US$ 4.7 
Industrial GDP 50 Billion US$ 5.8 
Agriculture GDP 54 Billion US$ 3.8 
Commercial GDP 147 Billion US$ 5.65 
Households 35.2 × 106 2.4 
Average household size Six people  
The number of consumers 26.6 × 106  
Key assumptionsInput parametersGrowth rate (%)
Population 208 × 106 
GDP 278 Billion US$ 4.7 
Industrial GDP 50 Billion US$ 5.8 
Agriculture GDP 54 Billion US$ 3.8 
Commercial GDP 147 Billion US$ 5.65 
Households 35.2 × 106 2.4 
Average household size Six people  
The number of consumers 26.6 × 106  

These assumptions form the basis for the LEAP model and help in generating comprehensive energy scenarios and forecasts for Pakistan’s energy system.

In any analysis, there are certain data restrictions and limitations inherent in the structure of the LEAP model. Some of the limitations identified in this analysis include the following:

  • Transmission grid limitations: The model does not consider the specific constraints and limitations of the transmission grid, such as altitude-dependent investigations of energy plants. It assumes that the generated electricity can be distributed to any grid location without limitations.

  • Energy supply transfer: The analysis does not account for the transfer of energy supply to specific grid locations at different times. It assumes that electricity can be distributed to any grid center without any constraints.

  • Exclusion of independent or privately owned producers: The model does not incorporate data for independent or privately owned energy producers due to inadequate information. This limitation may affect the accuracy and completeness of the analysis.

  • Climate configuration impact limitations: The model does not include associations for climate configuration impact limitations. This means that certain factors related to climate change and its impact on energy generation and consumption are not considered in the analysis.

  • Inability to forecast civil and political circumstances: The LEAP model is unable to forecast civil and political circumstances, which can have significant impacts on energy planning and decision-making. This limitation can affect the accuracy of the model’s projections.

  • Data requirements: The LEAP software is a complex tool that requires detailed data records, including climate locations, power plant characteristics, transmission system capabilities, availability, and hourly load curves based on renewable energy resources. Inadequate or incomplete data can affect the accuracy and reliability of the model’s results.

  • Tidal and wave energy: This research did not include tidal and wave energy resources for power generation.

It is important to consider these limitations and data restrictions when interpreting the results and making decisions based on the findings of this work.

In energy planning and scenario-based modeling, various strategies and technological trials are explored to evaluate uncertainties and propose solutions for electricity generation and environmental sustainability. The scenarios created for this study are intended to reflect actual energy systems and can help policymakers choose between several options based on analyses of GHG emissions and electricity-generating outputs to satisfy demand requirements.

This study examines four energy-based scenarios, including the baseline scenario, a renewable energy (RE) scenario, a more renewable energy (MRE) scenario, and a near-zero emission (NZE) scenario. Each scenario considers different renewable energy resources and their characteristics. Table IV provides information on each energy generation type, including process efficiency, historical production, maximum availability, installed capacity, lifetime cycle of plants, and merit order.

By examining these constraints and characteristics, policymakers can make decisions regarding which renewable energy resources to include in the energy mix. The scenarios provide insights into the potential benefits and challenges linked with various renewable energy options, helping policymakers to identify the most appropriate and effective strategies for achieving electricity generation targets and reducing GHG emissions.

The scenarios RE (Renewable Energy), MRE (Mostly Renewable Energy), and NZE (Net Zero Energy) represent different levels of dependency or transition toward renewables, focusing on environmental security. These scenarios require 50%, 80%, and 100% reliance on renewable energy sources, respectively.

1. Baseline

The business as usual (BAU) scenario in this study is based on the existing government energy policies and plans for Pakistan. It provides a projection of Pakistan’s energy sector for the next 20 years, taking into account the current government protocols and projections.

The BAU scenario utilizes the interpolation approach, which is a basic technique for energy demand forecasting, using data from the 2018 NTDC Energy Demand Forecast Report. The Pakistan Vision 2025 is also considered as an additional source for this scenario.

According to the government’s plans, by 2030, there are intentions to install 8810 MW of nuclear generation capacity and 9800 MW of renewable capacity, including mini- and micro-hydroelectric, wind, solar, and biomass power plants.81 

Large hydroelectric plants with a capacity of 13 548 MW will be added by 2024, along with additional coal plants with a capacity of 10 742 MW by 2023. In terms of retirements, 102 MW of nuclear capacity will be retired in 2019, and 326 MW will be retired by 2040. Gas-based power plants of 1613 MW capacity will retire in 2027, while furnace oil-based power plants of 583 MW will retire in 2027 and those of 1352 MW in 2034. All existing oil-based power plants, including those built as part of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), will shut down by 2031, and the BAU predicts that no new oil-based power plants will be built beyond that year.79 

Under the BAU scenario, the merit order of power plants prioritizes renewable energy generation over thermal generation. There is a plan to convert oil-fired power plants to subcritical coal-fired plants, reducing the reliance on oil-based boilers.57 By the end of the year 2040, the BAU scenario projects that nuclear capacity will account for 13.42% of the total, hydroelectric power will have a 29.35% share, thermal generation will make up 43.40%, and other renewables will contribute 13.78% to the energy mix.

2. Renewable energy (RE) scenario

Increasing the proportion of renewable energy sources in Pakistan’s overall electricity generation is the goal of the renewable energy (RE) scenario. The goal of this scenario is to significantly increase the share of renewable resources in the country’s energy mix while also exploring their potential.

In this scenario, renewable energy would account for 50% of Pakistan’s entire energy mix by the year 2040. This implies that renewable energy sources, such as hydroelectric, wind, solar, and biomass, would produce half of the country’s electricity.

The RE scenario emphasizes the significance of shifting to cleaner and more sustainable energy sources and offers an alternate pathway to the reference scenario. Pakistan may reduce its dependency on fossil fuels, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and improve environmental sustainability in the power sector by adding more renewable energy sources into the energy mix.

3. More renewable energy (MRE) scenario

In the MRE scenario, renewable energy sources make up a larger percentage of Pakistan’s energy mix. The purpose of this scenario is to increase the percentage of electricity produced from renewable sources even more than the RE scenario.

Under the MRE scenario, renewable energy sources, such as hydroelectric, wind, and solar, are expected to account for 80% of Pakistan’s overall energy mix by 2040. This represents a major change in favor of a portfolio of renewable and sustainable energy sources.

To achieve this goal, hydropower, wind, and solar energy projects would replace capacity retired by thermal power plants and other non-renewable energy sources. Pakistan may reduce its reliance on fossil fuels, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and shift to a more environmentally friendly and sustainable energy generation system.

4. Near to zero emission (NZE) scenario

The objective of the most ambitious of the four scenarios, the near-zero emission (NZE) scenario, is to transition Pakistan’s electricity generation to renewable energy sources. According to this scenario, by 2040, all of the country’s electricity will be generated by renewable energy sources.

The NZE scenario calls for the phase-out and expiration of all current thermal-based power installations that emit greenhouse gases. Thermal power plant installations are not planned for the future. Instead, a combination of renewable energy technologies will replace the retiring capacity from non-renewable energy sources.

The renewable energy mix in the NZE scenario includes hydroelectric, wind, solar, biomass, nuclear, and geothermal sources. These renewable energy sources will meet the entire country’s electrical needs, ensuring a clean, sustainable, and emission-free electricity-producing system.

Pakistan’s GHG emissions can be drastically reduced, the negative effects of climate change can be mitigated, and worldwide efforts to prevent environmental degradation would be bolstered if the country generated 100% of its electricity from renewable sources. It offers a bold and revolutionary vision for the nation’s energy future by highlighting the potential of renewable energy resources to meet energy demands while reducing environmental damage.

The technique proposed in this study aims to establish sustainable, secure, efficient, environmentally conscious, and reliable energy sources for Pakistan. By implementing the renewable energy scenarios outlined in the analysis, significant reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be obtained compared to the baseline scenario. This reduction in GHG emissions is vital in battling global warming and mitigating the environmental impacts associated with non-renewable energy generation.

Pakistan possesses a significant amount of untapped renewable energy potential, and with the necessary political will, the country can shift its energy policies toward renewables and work toward becoming net-zero emissions in the upcoming decades. Hydroelectricity, solar power, wind power, and even nuclear power will all play important roles in this energy transition.

The report projects that renewable sources will produce 621 TWh of Pakistan’s electricity supply under the study’s 100 percent renewable energy (RE) scenario by 2040, the analysis’s conclusion year. This huge rise in the production of renewable energy will help the nation satisfy its electricity needs while lowering its GHG emissions.

The analyses also look at the potential effects of global warming and electrical supply and demand (GWP). These analyses shed light on the viability and benefits of Pakistan’s energy sector switching to renewable energy sources, emphasizing the promising effects this transition can have on sustainability and the environment.

Figure 7 shows a summary of the forecasted electricity demand for Pakistan from 2018 to 2040. A multitude of variables, including population growth, the number of energy consumers, urbanization, rising living standards, initiatives to electrify rural areas, and GDP growth, have an impact on the fluctuations in electricity demand over this period.

FIG. 7.

Electricity demand forecast.

FIG. 7.

Electricity demand forecast.

Close modal

In 2018, Pakistan’s electricity demand was recorded at 121 TWh (terawatt-hours).82 However, according to the LEAP simulations conducted in this research, the estimated electricity demand is projected to reach 615 TWh by 2040, representing a growth rate of 6% compared to the reference year. It is important to note that this estimate is significantly higher than the electricity demand projected by Pakistan’s National Transmission & Despatch Company (NTDC), which forecasts an estimated demand of 687 TWh for all electricity consumption sectors.79 

The NTDC forecast is based on regression studies using empirical and econometric models, similar to the approach employed by the LEAP model in projecting demand and generating supply-side scenarios. The results of both analyses align in terms of demand projection and the approaches taken for electricity generation based on different scenarios.

These electricity demand forecasts provide useful insights for policymakers and energy planners in understanding the anticipated growth in energy consumption and designing strategies to meet future electricity needs effectively.

The research presents four energy generation scenarios (BAU, RE, MRE, and NZE) to address Pakistan’s energy demands from 2018 to 2040. Figures 811 illustrate the electricity generation plans for each scenario. The BAU scenario reflects existing Pakistani governmental policies, where 66% of the electricity generation mix relies on thermal power plants, contributing to significant GHG emissions.

FIG. 8.

Electricity generation mix under BAU scenario.

FIG. 8.

Electricity generation mix under BAU scenario.

Close modal
FIG. 9.

Electricity generation mix under RE scenario.

FIG. 9.

Electricity generation mix under RE scenario.

Close modal
FIG. 10.

Electricity generation mix under MRE scenario.

FIG. 10.

Electricity generation mix under MRE scenario.

Close modal
FIG. 11.

Electricity generation mix under NZE scenario.

FIG. 11.

Electricity generation mix under NZE scenario.

Close modal

The RE scenario, in contrast, concentrates on raising the proportion of renewable energy sources in Pakistan’s energy mix. In this scenario, by 2040, renewable energy will make up 50% of the overall energy mix. Aiming for an 80% share of renewable energy generation in the nation’s energy mix by 2040, the MRE scenario is more ambitious. Hydroelectric, wind, and solar energies will be gradually phased in to replace non-renewable energy capacity.

The NZE scenario represents the most transformative scenario, aiming for 100% of Pakistan’s electricity generation to come from renewable energy resources by 2040. In this scenario, all existing thermal-based power plants will be phased out, and no new thermal plants will be developed. Instead, retired capacity from non-renewable energy resources will be replaced with a diverse range of sustainable resources, including hydroelectric, wind, solar, biomass, nuclear, and geothermal sources.

These scenarios highlight the potential for Pakistan to transition toward a more sustainable and renewable energy generation system, reducing reliance on thermal power plants and mitigating GHG emissions. Each scenario represents a different level of commitment to renewable energy sources, with the NZE scenario providing the most ambitious and environmentally friendly pathway for Pakistan’s electricity generation.

According to theInternational Energy Agency,thermal-based power plants will significantly contribute to greenhousegas (GHG) emissions as the world’s demand for electricity is predicted to increase by the year 2050. This increase in emissions is a major concern, especially considering that non-renewable electricity generation and fossil fuel combustion already account for 62% of emissions in Pakistan. In 2018, GHG emissions from fossil fuel combustion in Pakistan’s electricity generation amounted to 40 × 106 metric tons of oil equivalent. The analysis of the GHG emission reductions in the scenarios for renewable electricity generation uses this reference year. The renewable energy (RE), more renewable energy (MRE), and near-zero emission (NZE) scenarios all significantly increase the share of renewable energy in Pakistan’s total electricity generation when compared to the baseline scenario while decreasing the country’s reliance on thermally based power generation. These other scenarios thus accomplish significant CO2 reductions. Figures 1215 give simulated LEAP findings for GHG emissions in the baseline and three alternative energy scenarios. The LEAP software analyzes emissions included in the test and evaluation database using GHG emissions and other methodological aspects based on IPCC Tier 1 data (TED). By the end of 2040, the baseline scenario predicts that GHG emissions will have increased from 40 × 106 tons in the reference year 2018 to 216 × 106 tons. However, the RE scenario predicts that GHG emissions will rise from 40 × 106 tons to 166 × 106 tons by 2040, a significant decrease from the baseline scenario. As seen in Fig. 16, the GHG emission comparison under all scenarios shows that renewable energy adoption significantly lowers emissions compared to the BAU scenario. These results demonstrate how scenarios for producing electricity from renewable sources might significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and lessen the environmental damage caused by thermally generated electricity.

FIG. 12.

GHG emissions under BAU scenario.

FIG. 12.

GHG emissions under BAU scenario.

Close modal
FIG. 13.

GHG emissions under RE scenario.

FIG. 13.

GHG emissions under RE scenario.

Close modal
FIG. 14.

GHG emissions under MRE scenario.

FIG. 14.

GHG emissions under MRE scenario.

Close modal
FIG. 15.

GHG Emissions under NZE scenario.

FIG. 15.

GHG Emissions under NZE scenario.

Close modal
FIG. 16.

GHG emissions comparison under all scenarios.

FIG. 16.

GHG emissions comparison under all scenarios.

Close modal

The main contribution of this paper is the development and evaluation of a comprehensive roadmap to 100% renewable electricity generation in Pakistan. The Pakistan Long-term Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model is used in the study to quantify the renewable energy needs and possible emission reductions associated with this transition.

Using LEAP, this paper gives a systematic and data-driven way to determine the renewable energy mix required to meet Pakistan’s electricity demand. This includes estimating the prospective contributions of various renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, hydro, and biomass, to overall energy generation.

Furthermore, the research assesses the environmental sustainability of the renewable energy transition. It measures the potential reductions in emissions that can be achieved by switching from fossil fuel-based energy generation to renewable sources. This analysis contributes to highlighting the environmental benefits of Pakistan’s transition to a 100% renewable electricity system.

Overall, the research provides useful insights and understanding into the renewable energy requirements, possible emission reductions, and environmental sustainability aspects related to Pakistan’s goal of achieving 100% renewable electricity generation. These findings can help policymakers, energy planners, and stakeholders in making informed decisions and formulating effective energy strategies for a sustainable energy future in Pakistan.

In the research conducted considering the period between 2018 and 2040, the starting year was used as a reference point for the LEAP software to assess long-term energy supply and demand forecasts and estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions linked to Pakistan’s electricity production using fossil fuels. This analysis aimed to provide the government of Pakistan with long-term solutions to reduce GHG emissions related to electricity generation, ultimately addressing the country’s electricity crisis and mitigating potential environmental devastation caused by climate change. The most effective electricity alternative by the year 2040, compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, is a 100% renewable electricity generation scenario. This scenario integrates relevant data for the Pakistani government to implement and offers numerous benefits, including greater economic viability and quicker construction timelines for solar and wind farms compared to coal power plants, which can take months to build. With the necessary political will and harnessing the abundant renewable energy potential in Pakistan, it is feasible to achieve emission-free electricity generation within a reasonable timeframe. However, challenges remain, including policy implementation, government financial support, and infrastructure deficiencies, which need to be addressed. Many researchers argue that providing incentives and commitments is essential to inspire investor contributions to renewable energy generation efforts. This study’s main objective was to forecast and balance Pakistan’s long-term power supply and demand situations while accounting for environmental and technological restrictions. The robust, internally consistent LEAP model employed in this study offers a useful foundation for comprehending potential future electricity demand and supply scenarios in Pakistan. Each supply-side scenario presents an alternative outlook for the country’s future electricity generation and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The projected LEAP model results for Pakistan’s future electricity demand align with other similar studies, indicating reliability and consistency. Over the next three decades, it is conceivable for Pakistan to achieve 100% renewable electricity generation.

In the “business as usual” (BAU) scenario, it is anticipated that GHG emissions from the production of electricity will rise from 40 × 106 metric tons of CO2 equivalent in 2018 to 216 × 106 metric tons of CO2 equivalent by the year 2040. However, the renewable energy (RE), more renewable energy (MRE), and near-zero emission (NZE) scenarios offer significant reductions in GHG emissions while simultaneously meeting the country’s total energy demand by 2040. By integrating more renewable energy resources into its long-term electricity plan, Pakistan can effectively address the growing electricity crisis while also benefiting the economy and the environment. Overall, this study highlights the importance of transitioning to renewable energy sources and provides valuable insights for Pakistan to develop sustainable electricity generation strategies in the long run.

The authors have no conflicts to disclose.

Rohan Kumar: Conceptualization (lead); Supervision (equal); Writing – original draft (supporting); Writing – review & editing (equal). Muhammad Asim: Conceptualization (supporting); Software (equal); Supervision (equal); Writing – review & editing (equal). Ammara Kanwal: Data curation (equal); Writing – original draft (equal). Muhammad Jawad: Validation (equal); Visualization (equal); Writing – review & editing (equal). Mohsin Pervez: Validation (equal); Writing – review & editing (equal).

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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