Climate change is a change in weather patterns over a long period of time and can lead to increased the frequency of hydro-meteorological disasters. This study aims to see the potential of drought in Cilacap based on the results of the CCAM model projections with RCP 4.5 scenario due to climate change. The method used is CCAM modeling method, the validation of rainfall data from CCAM output with observation data using the correlation and RMSE methods, and determining the incidence of drought with the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index). Based on the simulation results, rainfall data from CCAM’s output in 2006-2014 showed good performance with a correlation value of 0.8 and RMSE 61 value compared with the average rainfall observation that reached 270. When this data was used as input for calculating drought conditions CCAM data is also seen as quite capable in estimating drought conditions in Cilacap when compared with data from BNPB (Indonesian National Board for Disaster Management). Therefore the CCAM data and the SPI method are quite capable of explaining the conditions of drought in Cilacap. Based on the projected data from CCAM and the SPI drought calculation method, in the period of mid-2019 to 2020 is estimated that Cilacap will be in a normal condition and there will be no drought or extreme wet conditions.

Topics
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