Forecasting geomagnetic storms using energetic particle enhancements

It is well established that energetic particle enhancements are due, in part, to acceleration by interplanetary shocks as they propagate towards Earth. Thus the observation of these enhancements at satellites located at L1 can be considered a potential tool for forecasting the arrival of interplanetary shocks and the start of geomagnetic storms in Earth’s magnetosphere. The signatures of energetic particle enhancements observed by the WIND spacecraft during the time-period 1996–1998 are studied, together with the accompanying interplanetary shocks; their interplanetary drivers; their probable solar sources, and the ensuing geomagnetic storms. The results, based on 115–400 keV ion data, show that enhancements in ion intensity can be seen up to several days in advance of the arrival of the shock. Therefore monitoring the energetic particles will allow predictions/warnings of up to 3 days in advance.