The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant loss of human life worldwide and presented unprecedented challenges to public health, food systems, work, and many other sectors. In this paper, we make short-term predictions beyond the actual data we have using the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) method. Basically EKF has 2 stages in estimating, the prediction stage and the correction stage. To get short term prediction results, in this paper we make modifications at the correction stage. The COVID-19 mathematical model used in this paper is the SIRD model to see the effect of mobility restriction programs on infection cases. The simulation outcomes demonstrate that mobility restriction programs in Indonesia and East Java can lower infections.

Topics
Kalman filter, Mathematical modeling, Diseases and conditions, Coronaviruses, Food, Public and occupational health and safety
1.
D.
Aldila
,
S. H.
Khoshnaw
,
E.
Safitri
,
Y. R.
Anwar
,
A. R.
Bakry
,
B. M.
Samiadji
,
D. A.
Anugerah
,
M. F. A.
Gh
,
I. D.
Ayulani
, and
S. N.
Salim
,
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals
139
,
110042
(
2020
).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110042
Google Scholar
Crossref
Search ADS
 
2.
M. A.
Bhouri
,
F. S.
Costabal
,
H.
Wang
,
K.
Linka
,
M.
Peirlinck
,
E.
Kuhl
, and
P.
Perdikaris
,
Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering
382
,
113891
(
2021
).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cma.2021.113891
Google Scholar
Crossref
Search ADS
 
3.
J. P.
Hespanha
,
R.
Chinchilla
,
R. R.
Costa
,
M. K.
Erdal
, and
G.
Yang
,
Annual reviews in control
51
,
460
–
476
(
2021
).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.arcontrol.2021.03.008
Google Scholar
Crossref
Search ADS
PubMed
 
4.
D.
Fanelli
 and
F.
Piazza
,
Chaos, Solitons and Fractals
134
, (
2020
).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109761
Google Scholar
 
5.
J.
Bedson
,
L. A.
Skrip
,
D.
Pedi
,
S.
Abramowitz
,
S.
Carter
,
M. F.
Jalloh
,
S.
Funk
,
N.
Gobat
,
T.
Giles-Vernick
,
G.
Chowell
, et al.,
Nature human behaviour
5
,
834
–
846
(
2021
).
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01136-2
Google Scholar
Crossref
Search ADS
PubMed
 
6.
F. L.
Lewis
,
L.
Xie
, and
D.
Popa
,
Optimal and robust estimation: with an introduction to stochastic control theory
(
CRC press
,
Florida
,
2017
).
Google Scholar
Crossref
Search ADS
 
7.
H. N.
Fadhilah
,
A. N.
Alifah
,
A.
Faroby
,
M. H.
Zajuli
, and
D. K.
Arif
, “
Modified EKF for covid-19 prediction with 3 mobility restrictions (study case: Indonesia)
,” in
AIP Conference Proceedings
, Vol.
2641
(AIP Publishing, NY,
2022
).
https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0117110
Google Scholar
 
8.
J.
McCall
,
Journal of computational and Applied Mathematics
184
(
1
),
205
–
222
(
2005
).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cam.2004.07.034
Google Scholar
Crossref
Search ADS
 
9.
S.
Lalwani
,
G.
Sahni
,
B.
Mewara
, and
R.
Kumar
,
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals
138
,
109939
(
2020
).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109939
Google Scholar
Crossref
Search ADS
 
10.
M.
Ota
,
Nature Reviews Immunology
20
,
351
–
351
(
2020
).
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41577-020-0316-3
Google Scholar
Crossref
Search ADS
PubMed
 
11.
H.
Andriani
,
Journal of Indonesian Health Policy and Administration
5
, (
2020
).
Google Scholar
 
This content is only available via PDF.
© 2025 Author(s). Published under an exclusive license by AIP Publishing.
2025
Author(s)
You do not currently have access to this content.