The escalating significance of local budgets in driving socio-economic progress necessitates bolstering their autonomy. Local budgets serve as vital financial pillars for regional administrations to execute their mandates, and their fiscal self-reliance significantly influences the advancement of these areas. Central to the ongoing reforms in our nation’s fiscal and tax realm is the objective of enhancing the populace’s welfare, fostering economic stability, and fostering extensive avenues for the swift expansion of small enterprises and private entrepreneurship. Specifically, initiatives to further alleviate the economic tax load, streamline taxation procedures, and enhance tax governance are geared towards achieving this aim.
Currently, increasing the responsibility of local budgets in the implementation of social and economic reforms, creating a stable income base for them and scientifically studying the factors affecting the effectiveness of local budget implementation remain urgent issues today. In addition, in order to ensure the financial stability of local budgets and increase their independence, it is necessary to take into account regulation through the budget, because the most important mechanism for redistributing funds between them in order to ensure this balance is the income and expenses of budgets of the budget system. To ensure the stability of local budgets’ incomes and to achieve the effectiveness of local budgets’ expenses, it is important to implement measures to increase the economic potential of regions and increase the sources of taxation. The local budget is the main financial source for improving the well-being of the population of the region. That is why we considered it appropriate to determine the regional budget in advance in order to generate additional revenues of the local budget. The main goal of the research is to accurately determine the financial plan of the economy of the country and the region by forecasting local budget revenues in advance. In addition, in order to realize our research goal, we used the methodology of forecasting local budget revenues using the ARIMA model.